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Contributor

Grain guys

when i hear of  everyone talking saying they have been through this before, yada yada (we loaded with cash )etc (and speak of a crisis that occurred 35 yrs ago. That  just tells me  just how inexperienced and naive  this bunch is that we have on the ground right now.  Welcome to the new world of commodity production . The volatilty out here now with our current political and monetary situation is unprecedented.  These are unchartered waters.  Major ... MAJOR farm consilidation is right around the corner.  I will be amazed if in 5yrs there is half the farms left if these conditions and volatilty persist

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16 Replies
Advisor

Re: Grain guys

If they persist. And I will probably die IF I get hit by a bus getting the mail today.

Some BTO's probably will get a spanking however there are some strong hands out there.
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Contributor

Re: Grain guys

not only is it persisting but intensifying IMO

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Advisor

Re: Grain guys

What has you so concerned Hedge?? RA insurance has got us covered pretty good this year. Govt five year program should take the sting out.
I think you are underestimating future demand. We will chew thru this crop.
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Contributor

Re: Grain guys

people have been saying the same thing for about the last 18months its getting worse.

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Advisor

Re: Grain guys

What's getting worse? Market is down okay. Is demand down??
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Contributor

Re: Grain guys

demand is where it is no new ethanol genie coming to stavenoff ever increasing global supply

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Advisor

Re: Grain guys

Livestock margins are huge . Herds will be rebuilt
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Grain guys

Lose more farms due to retirements resulting in consolidations than anything else.  Other than that, protections will be in place to weather the storm for all except those who took on excessive debt, and/or didn't lock in their interest rates.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Grain guys

Hedge. Welcome to the site. We welcome
All people with their opinions....be they
right or wrong.

This place is a good study of human nature.
Matter of fact, when I took a course not
So long ago, in marketing we had some
Professors that surprised me..
One was a physics professor...he demonstrated how they look at data points
To try to determine there was a trend.
Another was a statistics professor...then
two others....one was in socialology the
Other in psychology along with several
AG economic people.

Some interesting things about hedge funds.
first, according to research data, hedge
funds are not good investments
Hedge funds usually push the markets too
Far in both directions
Last, many times the funds are on the
Wrong side of the trade.
Most funds act "en group". Everyone knows
Where everyone else is, nobody in the
Firm is not going to stand up and say we
Are doing the wrong thing, or "I have an
Idea".....fearing for their jobs

The funds have also made errors.

Case in point is the hrw market...all
involved have remarked how wrong
the market is.

As for the bean and corn market. First
It is not in the bin. Second we all
know this has been a less than perfect
Year. We also know usda does make
Mistakes. I remember several report
and "revisions " that had the funds on
The wrong side.

So to me, as a potential investor, I would
Be quite concerned if my fund mananger
"Just knows" what is going to know
What is going to happen before it happens.

In particular if they are in an office in
Chicago vs hundreds of people who are
Looking at the crop and have years of
production experience and thus can
Speak with some authority on crop
Conditions and yeild potential.

A small group spending a few days driving
around looking at fields pale to those
Hundreds doing yeild estimate on many
fields.

Again, welcome to the site. We accept everyone, warts and all, and no matter
if they are right .......or wrong
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