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Senior Advisor

I see nothing new - at all

And yes, I've seen it before. And worse. Doesn't mean some farmers who misjudged the cycle won't get hurt. And i'll guess the worrst hurt will be some of the current crop of expanding operations. It's always that way. Many of the smaller operations have off farm income that provide stability. The wheat market of 2007-8 exploded because the new order of low prices at that time completely broke down and was ignored by the experts. That happens too. Global reserves are good but they aren't extraordinary by any means.

 

And my strategy has been to be prepared for it. Because I HAVE seen it before. The most different thing is that banks are loaning money at very low interests rate which aren't nearly as low as commodity loans. There are quite a few tools to take care of ordinary cash flow issues and ride it out while belt tightening.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: I see nothing new - at all

Sounds like there will be lots of opportunity in the next 5 years if all these farms disolve like the all knowing says.

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Honored Advisor

Re: I see nothing new - at all

turdypointbuck,    I agree.........but I don't want to be the last one to have a farm sale.   Smiley Wink

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Senior Contributor

Re: Grain guys

Some major BTOs went out of bussiness durring the "good times" of the last few years (thinking of Stamp farms). If they couldn't manage their operations then how many will survive the new normal. Consolidation? Maybe, but I don't think we will see a bunch of 100,000 farms. I'm not sure total numbers will change that much. I know a lot of young guys with off farm jobs waiting for an opportunity. Maybe they will get that opportunity in the near future.
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Senior Advisor

Re: Grain guys

Buck you can add my name to that category, but quitting good paying steady off farm employment will be hard to do in rough farming times. Especially when that job pays 6 figure take home with a full benefit package.
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Frequent Contributor

Re: Grain guys

Tiger, I hope you never have a sale either! But, if all this so called doom and gloom comes true, I'll be sitting there ready.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Grain guys

I quite my job nearly two years ago. Wife's job not paning out like we hoped and now with the markets being what they are I keep working more amd more part time hours.
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