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Veteran Advisor

Grain zone for Th

We live and learn. The Beans almost made it to 1442^6 with a high print of 1442 tonight....looking for it to trade into 1426 area then bounce and consolidate. Anticipating a sell in 1438-1442 area, but probably not until Mon.

 

Still long the Wheat from 772...it is trading around unch on session (so we are minus 2-3 cents)  - want to see if we can trade to our target now @ 789 tomorrow... either way here, we will flatten for weekend.

 

Looks like no change in the Drought monitor week over week - with roughly 2/3 of cornbelt in D2-D4 with just 5 weeks until March. Weather-wise - below average temps in upper midwest with a continued good chance of snow in the NE half of the belt looking out 2 weeks.

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7 Replies
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Re: Grain zone for Th

If you gotta have a drought February is a great time to have one.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Grain zone for Th

do tell, please hardnox.....why is it that Feb is a great time for Drought?.............does it make the skin start crawling? 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Grain zone for Th

The best time to have a drought is when nothing is growing anyway - therefore February is a great time for drought.  That whole thought changes about April...

 

Any thoughts on if the market has topped out for now and slides through Feb (S.A harvest)?  I've been expecting a bit more strength, especially in wheat.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Grain zone for Th

My thinking is in line with yours Nate.  I lifted all my put options about a week ago and the prices have been falling ever since.  Can't win for losing.  I do believe the wheat has no where to go but up, reading more and more articles of production struggling on a global concern.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Grain zone for Th

Thoughts NateWCMN...First one being I hope you are staying warm...pretty frigid airmass 'round your parts.

  Thanks for clarification on the drought - didn't know there was any GOOD time for oneSmiley Wink

         Bigger picture I believe all 3 major grains have put in lows (beans, wheat on Jan report) - that we are beginning a next bull impulse of the timeframe (several months)-----nearterm (days) - think we are in the traditional Feb break.....gut tells me SA harvest is just part of the spin.

        Lets face it, economically all the grains have a tightness on balance either way you look @ it (supply/demand, etc.).

 

Technically, we have a little head & shoulders bottom on wheat on daily. i'm looking for a little pop in wheat to 789 - 795 or so next few days. Overall---sideways, consolidation for a week to 10 days Beans, Corn.....maybe less time for Wheat to begin next upleg...

 

Pre planting - believe corn has better case than beans to take out last summers high and Wheat - once it starts trying to grow again late Mar/Apr - well, the southern plains might look relatively barron----950 look out-----

 

hope this helps, c-x-1

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Advisor

Re: Grain zone for Th

CX

 

Do you put any value in short term time cycles. Looks like beans might be tradiing in a 20-22 day trading cycle

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Grain zone for Th

Cat.......absolutely HUGE value in short term---i do count day bars, use Elliot counts and other trendlines, etc....Describe the cycle per se, please-sir.

 

..............there is huge value during each day as we can see!!

 

thx,

 

c-x-1

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