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rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Grassley, Market to Market, ethanol

Only a few more days to comment on the new ethanol provisions the RFS.  Market to Market had a quick piece this week which included Sen. Grassley's statement on the issue.

   He simply stated what we already know from reading EPS's proposed language.  It simple won't accomplish the goal set out in the RFS, namely blend 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol in 2020.  It doesn't even come close, maybe only 13 billion.

  Futhermore, he reiterated, "make the words of the proposal reflect President Trump's Oct 12th promise, 15 billion gallons"  which the current document doesn't do.

Maybe it's time farmers write the White House directly and demand the president keep his promise. 

Which you can do here: https://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/

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8 Replies
rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Re: By the way, here's the message I sent.

President Trump,

With regards to EPA's recent proposed RFS rule change concerning blending renewable fuels, on Oct 12th, you promised that proposed rule would lead to blending 15 billion gallons per year of corn ethanol in to the nation's fuel supply.

  It is clear that the wording of the proposed rule change will not accomplish this.  It will likely be substantially less, more like 13 billion gallons.

   As a corn farmer who grows corn for ethanol production and given all the current difficulties farmers are confronted with due to the trade war, it is essential that we use as much of our excess corn supply as possible. Obviously one way to do that is to follow the law and blend the required amount of corn-ethanol.

  Mr. President, please make sure that EPA Administrator Wheeler corrects the language of this proposal to require the full 15 billion gallons be blended as promised.

  Sincerely,

freedom1493
Veteran Advisor

Re: By the way, here's the message I sent.

@rickgthf Very well-written.

====

Saw this article yesterday about corn being shipped west to east, "over Chicago," for use in ethanol production, etc., "due to hoarding."

Thoughts?

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/delayed-us-corn-harvest-has-resulted-chaos-trade-routes

...it referenced another earlier article appearing in Bloomberg with the same topic:

I read the comments under the second article-- interesting to see the differing opinions.  But most readers, if they even read the article, will pluck out "Trump's Trade War" and "28 billion bail-out" and then their brains shut down.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: By the way, here's the message I sent.

Not sure Bloomberg is credible being another political mouthpiece.

And it is a nice touch on the letter about wording.......... but it may all be irrelevant.

I doubt we have the grain in place to reach the 15 level in 2020 without importing.

Hate to see political pain either way if it makes no difference..... but then again if the language is changed

then the EPA looks bad.........." so we got that going for us."

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rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Re: According to the Nov 8 WASDE.....

Two billion gallons of ethanol is equivalent to 714 million bushel of corn.  According to the Nov. 8 WASDE next Sept's carry out is projected to be 1910 billion  bushel.  If we were to get the extra ethanol production we'd still have a 1200 million bushel carryout, tighter but not nearly as tight as 2013.

 Given how slow corn exports have been, there shouldn't be any supply issues.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: According to the Nov 8 WASDE.....

Only 2 months into the marketing year maybe the export "projections" are riskier than the harvest results which are over for the most part.  I think we might have a better chance to see 12 or below on the yield side than a below projection export number.   In 2012 we were in the 12 range according to the fake usda scale....and the drought was not everywhere.

88 million acres at 32 (15-18%below) bushel below normal and we are crowding 3 billion short of expectations.  And usda has high expectations..... Only year I can remember when every area of the country was affected and most will have bigger losses.  Prevent plant nearly guarantees that........

This was worse than drought because the cause was a short season and wet conditions ..... everywhere.

_________ don't missunderstand me......... I am not one who believes usda will have to come to grips.......

They have no intention of actually accounting for bushels. (They only adjust when they fear egg on their face)  They will hold that yield up there till their clothes fall off or their candidate wins(or both).

Reality is closer to 11 b.  I fear there are many on the commercial side of this that are doing more that predicting poor exports, they are hoping for them.  Ethanol plants are bidding up for bushels in locations now, with harvest nearly over.

We have a feedlot willing to contract corn at 40 over for Oct 20 delivery.  I never seen that before.  Willing to commit that far out.  Openly saying they dont think the bushels are there.  And we know they are not in the sw region.  This lot is saying they are not willing to bet that bushels will be available to ship south later in the year.

Point is ----- we see more and more buyers and sellers here who "don't trust those numbers"  Saying that before Thanksgiving is unbelievable.  But it has been an unbelieveable year.

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: According to the Nov 8 WASDE.....

 

Come and get it...

 

Ground piles full

 

Elevators full

 

Thousands and thousands of acres still to harvest here.

 

Basis getting ugly.

 

Bins full that haven't been used in a decade or more in

this area. 

k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: According to the Nov 8 WASDE.....

The  E.  I.  A.  ( Energy  Information  Administration )   &   A . P.  I.  (  American  Petroleum  Institute )   will  give  you a  clearer  picture  of  the  reflection  of  policy   for  Ethanol  -   -   -  

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lsc76cat
Veteran Advisor

Re: According to the Nov 8 WASDE.....

Not sure if this is a conspiracy theory or not but try this one:

Somebody (bureaucrats) knows the crop isn't there and is trying

to tamp down demand before the real story gets out and gives somebody (processers)

an excuse to raise food prices in an election year!!

Never underestimate the "deep state".

Oh well - my desk sits on the grassy knoll.

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