Only 2 months into the marketing year maybe the export "projections" are riskier than the harvest results which are over for the most part. I think we might have a better chance to see 12 or below on the yield side than a below projection export number. In 2012 we were in the 12 range according to the fake usda scale....and the drought was not everywhere.
88 million acres at 32 (15-18%below) bushel below normal and we are crowding 3 billion short of expectations. And usda has high expectations..... Only year I can remember when every area of the country was affected and most will have bigger losses. Prevent plant nearly guarantees that........
This was worse than drought because the cause was a short season and wet conditions ..... everywhere.
_________ don't missunderstand me......... I am not one who believes usda will have to come to grips.......
They have no intention of actually accounting for bushels. (They only adjust when they fear egg on their face) They will hold that yield up there till their clothes fall off or their candidate wins(or both).
Reality is closer to 11 b. I fear there are many on the commercial side of this that are doing more that predicting poor exports, they are hoping for them. Ethanol plants are bidding up for bushels in locations now, with harvest nearly over.
We have a feedlot willing to contract corn at 40 over for Oct 20 delivery. I never seen that before. Willing to commit that far out. Openly saying they dont think the bushels are there. And we know they are not in the sw region. This lot is saying they are not willing to bet that bushels will be available to ship south later in the year.
Point is ----- we see more and more buyers and sellers here who "don't trust those numbers" Saying that before Thanksgiving is unbelievable. But it has been an unbelieveable year.
