Guess The 2013 Trend Line Yield

[Jim Meade / Iowa City]

As an Iowan, I'm always bemused by the talk of corn acre shifts, although I'll admit I've been playing games with corn/bean percentages myself.  But, the progosticators are out already talking about the amount of corn needed to meet the assumed demand (a highly variable number) as being a product of yield times acreage.  Duh.

What do you see for a trend line yield?  This paper picked 162 as the mathematical number and then wonders how to adjust it for weather.  They have two alternate scenarios, 5 over and 10 under.

For me, it doesn't make much different.  I know within 35 acres of my rotation right now.  The last field will be decided in the spring.  So, to some extent, the trend line or any other projected yield doesn't make much difference.

Oh, but it does, you say.  It is important marketing information.  yes, I suppose it should be an 5 years ago it would have been.  But, I'm 5 years older, I'm closer to retirement, I'm not interested in any big marketing risks, and I'd rather take the chance of missing a sale than making one I later regret.  Why, you are being more speculative by staying out of the market.  Hmmm.  Yes, to a point that is right, but to some extent I'm just moving from pre-harvest marketing to post-harvest marketing.  Among the factors invollved as I get close enough to at least contemplate retirement are trying to balance my defered taxes with income so I don't get hit with a huge tax bill the year after I quit.  

Anyway, there are many more factors in the equation than just trend line yield or price.

http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2012/11/how-many-acres-of-corn-are-needed.html

"Implications

The job of the corn market is to motivate the "correct" magnitude of planted acreage in 2013. To that end, the market will continue to assess demand prospects and prospects for the 2013 growing season. It is problematic, of course, that acreage decisions have to be made before either demand or growing season weather is known. Given the yield shortfalls of 2011 and 2012 and on-going drought conditions in much of the U.S., the market may need to reflect expectations of a below-trend yield in 2013. The current price of December 2013 corn futures, near $6.25 per bushel, is consistent with this scenario. It is important to recognize that even under this scenario planted acreage will not need to exceed that of 2012 unless demand is stronger than currently anticipated or historically large yield concerns persist into the spring.

Issued by Darrel Good and Scott Irwin
Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics
 University of Illinois"

[Kstater85]

Informa started with 178M acres total corn+beans and split them 98.5 and 80.   Given the ratio of prices it seems to favor corn.  Without major weather problems in South America we certainly don't need 80M bean acres.   Dry weather will have an effect but it also minimizes prevent plant acres in the Dakotas. 

Add all this up and I wonder if we are not headed towards 100M acres of corn for 2013?

[ECIN]

First Off here ----- Happy Thanksgiving to everybody ! Well From my part of the world , I - or we have to go back to last fall , Indiana was like 300,000 down on winter wheat , as was ohio - they may have been closer to 400,000 down , then there was IL . they were down some to , if I remeber right . Now to this fall , we had late cutting of beans , but for the most part , i think that most got there wheat in , plus ! i have talked to farmers here that has not rised wheat in 20 - 30 years planting some , some as much as 200 acres . I was even going to plant 50- to 75 acres but backed out of the deal because of chemical care over . I got a e-mail last year on the last 10 years of national yields , after figureing them up , the yield was like 152 not the 162 or 166 that informa was talking . Then there is the what IF'S , what if we do plant 100 mil of corn ? then my best guess is the yield would go down more , as is only so much GOOD ground and the marginal ground OR CRP ground comes in to play . Then how about the cost per acre ? boy's it talks a boat load of money to plant 98 to 100 mil of corn , will money be a problem for some with 60 -100 bpa yields ? Yes most may have had insurance but . So Jim , for the chair of Knowledge here ( LMAO ) I will guess 96 on corn and yield at 151 --- for now , lol No rain this fall or winter ?? better pull them belt's one more time , going green the next lap

[rayjenkins]

Well, that still gets us a 13.3 byn crop in 2013

that's a reasonable start to rebuilding our demand base

but fully agree we might be "feeling the tire rub on the fender wall" several times before it's in the bin next fall!

[sw363535]

yes ecin,

Any early estimation that ignores the last 2 years of history, thinking it won't effect 2013 yield,  is not realistic.  At least until we see some major weather changes.

I thought hurricane season was our first possibility, and country wide, that was a fizzle.  

This warm, dry, and windy is different than last winter but not better.

An elevator in the okla. panhandle is tracking local rainfall for the last 3 yrs on their bid board------on a yearly basis and monthly for the current year---------it is shocking to look at----------- around 6 inches annually and month after month below 3/10.

Bookkeeper notes that, even with these prices, farmers comment on that data more than the bids.

Ya gotta raise a crop before ya can sell it.

[ECIN]

I had a great e-mail that I wish I would have kept, lol but the Iowa guys can help me out here , the-mail was about going into planting season in Iowa below on subsoil moisture , if i remeber right , they had 10 years data , and out of them 10 years , the yields were below trend 7 out of the 10 with 2 even and 1 just above trend . So , how is the subsoil looking out there today ? I'm just guessing it's worse than last year at this time , Unless your Hobbyfarmer that does live in God's country of Milk and Honey ! just something to watch . Got to go eat turkey soon so , everybody have good day ! One question here ! Why coulldn't they had 100% Angus ribeye's for thanksgiving ?? LOL

[Hobbyfarmer]

Just so you all know, I just took that picture 11:15am This morning. That is a 15 inch Crescent wrench in that crack.

I'm not sure but what it isn't a new fault opening up here in South Podunk Country. Only the bottom ground is in good moisture shape for next year, the upper ground has a ways to go.

[Mike central IA]

Holy cow! You got a crescent wrench to sprout! That must be good dirt, my emergence on crescent wrenches and hammers is much poorer. I plant plenty, and at different seeding depths, but nothing seems to improve the emergence.