Guys - you must read this

[jennys_mn]

I posted below about what I saw on the 5-7 day weather.  When I got done, I went out to load my truck for the farm tomorrow, and was going over what I wrote.  Who am I to take on NOAA?  What didn't I see that NOAA saw.  And it hit me.  OH MY GOD!!!

Remember, I said that the 6 - 10 and 8 - 14 day forecast didn't seem to be right lately?  I've been saying it for two weeks.  

And, normally, I would be down in Oklahoma teaching Air Traffic Controllers right now, and wouldn't be having time to do this.  Why am I home.  One Word....

SEQUESTRATION!!!!!!!

Oh my God!!!  There's the answer guys, for a whole lot of things.  It explains why NOAA forecasts are off.  They don't have the people that they had, and are relying, much like they do on weekends, to do some of the more mundane tasks.  How could I have been so stupid.

Now, there are those that have private forecasting firms, that we are not privy to.  What if, a certain portion of the traders is taking advantage of this lapse of the NOAA people.  They know the forecasting isn't right, and that is why we are seeing this SELL! SELL!  SELL!  mentality that I also have been referring to.  And at what point, do they pull out the rug and buy this thing big time and trap all you guys that have sold.  

I still have friends that work for the FAA.  They hove told me and I have read about the loss of meteorologists due to this sequester thing.

If you've sold, be very, very careful.  This thing could blow anytime.

Jen

[Wrestler]

I appreciate your comments immensely. Don't know who to believe. This crop in the western cornbelt is in trouble. Scattered showers aint gonna do it. Damage is worse than traders and CBOT know. Just have to wait it out. My old man is pretty smart and he says they don't have a clue. We will come in one day and be up the limit. Until then we'll just keep spraying and haying.

[jennys_mn]

Sorry, I was typing fast. They're relying on computers. During the week, the forecasts that the computer kicks out is modified by a person. I don't think the forecasts have been as accurate, and I think this is why.

And, it brings other reports into question. Like USDA reports. It answers a lot of things that we've been saying are wrong.

Jen

[jennys_mn]

Wrestler, that's my point, I think they do know. The board is selling, selling, making money short, drawing more people in, and all of a sudden it's BUY! Like there is no tomorrow.

Jen

[Wrestler]

I am pretty well connected in Iowa.Crop isjust not there.I'm going off what I see and other contacts are telling me. We shall see. To each their own. Maybe it starts raining on Sunday and covers the whole corn belt with 2+.

[jennys_mn]

If I had to guess, the people selling this are waiting for that real.chance of rain to take the market down limit, and then bust the thing up limit and trap everyone short or were long and to weak to stomach a down limit move. It would be one heck of a plan.

Jen

[425Cat]

Jenny ,

You're scaring ,me . I agree the trade is wrong at this time however not sure there is a big colusion going on to trap a bunch of nonsuspecting farmers.

[jennys_mn]

Us farmers are a tiny player in the realm of the trade. There are millions of people from every walk of life that invest in futures on way or another. Think about it. The funds are short in a year when the we had so many potential cropping issues. They continue to be short. The weather forecasting has been less than stellar. No matter what is reported, we basically go down. I'm telling ya, it would explain a lot things.

Jen

[jennys_mn]

And I can guarantee you, someone is going to make a heck of a lot of money if this scenario were to play out.

Jen

[Wrestler]

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@jennys_mn wrote:
Sorry, I was typing fast. They're relying on computers. During the week, the forecasts that the computer kicks out is modified by a person. I don't think the forecasts have been as accurate, and I think this is why.

And, it brings other reports into question. Like USDA reports. It answers a lot of things that we've been saying are wrong.

Jen

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I think the USDA does the best they can at the time. I'm not a USDA basher or subscribe to the conspiracy theories. Hope it rains for you.