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OKdon
Senior Contributor

Re: Analyzing Market Information

I need to call some other expert into the fray because I am not a student of market trends . Ray jenkins comes to mind. I'm guessing that the USDA predictions are pretty accurate for one year to the next. As compared to the illinois guys that claim a production disaster and only harvest 220 bushels of corn.

 

In the first place I am not convinced that the USDA is a group of liars and crooks. I don't know anybody that would prefer lower grain prices other than perhaps livestock feeders and grain processors. And they use the same information we do to make their decisions.

 

Secondly what would be the motivation for a usda employee to fudge the numberss. Has Cargill got them on the take? I don't think so.

 

Government is not my enemy and I know that poses a problem for those of you students of the EIB network. You would have to examine your thought processes to make that journey.

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CitiFarmer
Veteran Contributor

Re: HEADLINE

OKDon, Cargill is a very large grain processor and livestock feed user as well as having many more tools for analysis available for making marketing decisions than you and I.  Nothing wrong with that as they pay for or developed those services.

 

I do not always agree with the USDA reports and have concerns when they appear slow to make adjustments to their numbers in what appears to be the face of other information - BUT - they are probably the best source that we have that does not cost us a lot of money to access data from.

 

Anytime there is a good deal of money involved in a situation, we must all look behind just the initial statement or number to see if there is an alternative motive to what is released.

 

Just my thoughts and observations from studying markets for over 30 years as a producer, grain purchaser and over 15 years as a marketing advisor.

 

 

sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Analyzing Market Information

Don you miss the point.  usda is not misleading you or me.  And the only lie they ever tell is when they declare their projections to be fact....  That never happened until in recent years...  Read the usda annual report for a year in the 1960's or 50's or before.  They make it clear that their projection is not based on accurate accounting.  They are guess projections.  And in those years the market told us more about the size and use of the crop than usda did...

 

I am not letting the political appointees off for those years --- as we all know in the 60's usda used a government held reserve over the markets.  But we should view the process in realistic terms, no matter what they say in that report it will not change the size of the crop I am harvesting one way or the other...... And our trading public have lost sight of that fact...

What should move the market today is whether I do or don't sell the crop I am harvesting today... 

 

Remember we are still living in days we have never seen before.... Days when we are seeing 13 billion bushels of corn demand...

That is a fact that the users of grain and political planners continuously try to down play...  And Don you know we lived most of our lives(us older guys) with a market that was tethered to the usda loan rate.  Unfortunately, We could count of it...

 

This fall a local farmer went in to see about taking a government loan on his farm stored harvest and was told there wasn't money available to issue grain loans....   You tell me when was he lied to... When he read the posted price on the fsa wall?  When he signed up for the usda programs? Or when he was told there was no money to issue a loan....  while on the way home he drives by a cellulostic ethanol plant carried by government $$ and passes another 3 wind chargers being delivered.

If our government is anything in a general sense it is unreliable....... 

 

I'm guessing that the USDA predictions are pretty accurate for one year to the next. --your quote   How would we ever know, there is nothing to compare them to.  That is right Your guessing, just like they are.  And the quotees and the interviewers are guessing what the guess will be.  And those who publish appreciate the fact that usda writes the story for them....every week

 

 

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bkadds
Advisor

Re: HEADLINE

Sw--nice post and I will add that until the last bushel of any grain is used the USDA could claim there is any amount out there they want to. Luckily for the USDA farmers overproduce as a group, which allows the swag method to continue. Needless to say, I believe very little of what the govt puts out.
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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Analyzing Market Information

Ignore   the  USDA  and listen to the ''' private  forecasters '''  and plan accordingly  - there are private experts all over the place - like the Kansas  Wheat  tour for one ---

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Analyzing Market Information

SW  -   as far as gov.   $$$   being spent on items you mentioned  let's  NOT  forget the ''' equip  $$ '''  that was rolled out in the country side the past decade --- Are we witnessing  Our Freedom To Farm  as we speak ---    

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