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Veteran Advisor

Re: HEY marketeye

I think everyone in the markets are having a hard time figuring them out, i can't quite put my finger on what is the major

trigger on all of this inability to make logic of things.  We've focused more on usda data (some say the only game in town),

the private numbers are i believe becomming less believed (good or bad ??) the markets just "don't act right", i just

cant explain it, or put in words how to express it.

i think we're getting into more funds, rather than commerical/producer, which was more closer linked to supply/demand

and crop conditions, and attention was paid to producers, today, that seems to be off. today, we are getting alot of

"young kids" in the mix, they lack seasoning, and they open their mouths, for some reason, they want to spin how

good crops look, i think that is part of some basic "seed sales", and "how good and efficiant agriculture is".

today i see "the young bucks", making recomendations, with really no consideration of cost, either thru school or

sales meetings, you need to use the best, to produce the best, and you must produce the best....consideration of

cost efficiancy seems to be gone on the way side.   Today they dont bat an eye on the cost of seed or chemical or fertilizer.

they are trained to "use the best", the biggest thing seems to be not to have one single weed on the property.

(have you watched ag phd......to boys must have gotten 3 gallon pump up sprayers for christmas when kids).

It seems we have lost "something", along the way, a farmer must weigh all the options, and take many things

in consideration.  But most crop services do not want that, yes chemical all might burn it down in a couple of days

and just smoke it, but chemical b, might get it after a time, and may not be 100% on everything...but can you justifiy

10 dollars an acre (this is for us wheat people, corn and bean people have a bit more freedom, since you might

make more)

 

back to marketing.....same thing, it seems we have young people in it now, and it's "a job" it seems, they just respit what

they are told, etc, etc, i don't hear many new opinions or different dynamic idea comming from anyone, it's the standard

"world full of gain, high dollar, good crop conditions" yada yada ad nausium.

 

i think part of it might be the fear of placing any body appendage out, voicing a different opinion, and if right, they will be

the star and the darling, and put in the big off......if they are wrong, they are thrown out of the office.  with the job market

as it is, that might be part of it, nobody wants to stick their neck out to say "hey now, something not quite right here",

hard to get a nice job like they have, and plus will have a black cloud over their head.

 

also, with alot of the "new york crowd" in the market anymore, they use their own game rules used on nyse, and there

people live and die by government reports.....so if we go over to commodities, you listen to the official report, usda,

they should not make mistakes like the fed, dept of commerence, etc.......

 

if they can "make some money" they will do it, no matter the direction things are going.  Totally different mindset than many

in the commodity pits.

 

add in the programed trading, working on headlines.........

 

trying to be a market advisor, can be a hazdious business.....esp if you are a young fellow, paying for a nice house, the

wife's minivan or surban and the nice double cab 4x4 they drive to work, saving for college for their 3 kids, and having enough

money to take annual trips and to live "comfortable"......

so we all act like robots......which is the safest thing.

 

am i close, or did i get a bad batch of sprinkles ?

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: HEY marketeye

Elcheapo,

Is there a reliable farmer's report that we can trade? Or, do you want us to trade the farmer's comments and posts on this website?
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Honored Advisor

Re: HEY marketeye

Allendale just put out a report like 10 days ago that was total rubbish. Smelled to high heaven of trying to move markets to fix their bad advice. 

 

The amount of money in this thing is just too much temptation for many if not most.

 

Will still PROBABLY be a corn crop of 13+ Billion. 14+ not so likely. Going to be the biggest Milo crop in a very long time and it does compete with corn. Don't forget about all that junk wheat floating around as well.

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Honored Advisor

Re: HEY marketeye

Just think where farming would have been in 2010 through 2013 if the 2008 economic crash hadn't been repainted with federal cash when the dollar crashed......  Those three years would have been a wreck without the market prices we saw.  

And for the dry land guy on the fringe price didn't help.  But he's not a big story...."never should have been broken out anyway" attitude.

point is,  I don't see the inconsistancy in reporting and not just by marketeye but by all private agriculture media.......

 

But I do see consistancy.........   They report what they hear others(with credentials) say---- ........ And they do "salivate" at the big story.....(a train wreck is a big story even if they are on the same train)  

 

But mostly,  we all better get used to it.  electronic trade is not going to present much insider information,  reasoning,  or insight.....

 

Marketeye may come across trite, and overly enthused with the boring usda propultions, but it may be the future for us all when there is no source of why or how!

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: HEY marketeye

Giolucas,

I know your question is not asking for an answer, but is asking for thought,  and I agree individual reports don't affect the market.  

But I'll give you an answer to consider and preface it with a comment.  

Outside of me, and a couple of friends, there are no stupid farmers left......(attempted humor)

My answer would be no,,,,,, compared to 40 years ago, there are no "reliable farmer's reports".

I live close to good cash cattle markets and solid grain production, ( though it has the fatal distinction of not being in Iowa)  

from My Grandfathers time until the last 30 years, Dodge City radio aired farm reports that included much more than the prices...

first hand crop reports, local farmers and elevator managers interviews on moisture conditions and crop progress, insect problems, fertilizer issues, -----all on a very local basis.  We knew daily or at least weakly if the Wright area got more rain or hail than the Montezuma area, or the grass ranches south of Minneola into the OK panhandle.  Or the solid 240 bu. corn flat country in the Sublette area and what their storage issues were going to be.  and....... Why the markets fell 15 cents yesterday..... and Why the big export purchase yesterday was going to affect the markets for the next two weeks....

That is what I miss from farm media and marketeye hasn't got, or doesn't get solid, informational data.  What he repeats are quotes from the fringe "advisors". (the advertisers for farm radio in the past)......... And maybe that is where he should be.....  Since actual grain movement and "middlemen" have become such an integrated  hush hush business.... 

 

A lot of us are in the middle also,,,,,,,,,, for me I get the reports that come with an associated FCStone account.  They fill a lot of the void..  Not sure Successful Farming needs to hedge anything but I would think it would not be that expensive to have that at marketeyes fingertips... and a few more.....

 

But for the most part in the "technical" and "informantion age of smart phones", it is rather obvious that our socialistic, "big brother" tendancies are making us hold actual information close to the vest and if you haven't noticed most of the media production is done now by someone with the initials AP.  Even in Dodge City, ------- Marshall Dillons morning paper had more agriculture news in it than the one today....

 

We had a Arial applicator call us three days ago ...... while they were spraying our fields a white pickup was following their plane around taking video....They were not happy and wanted our help in stopping it.  Investigation told us we had an employee who "chases butterflies" when he is supposed to be working.....a well meaning guy who hasn't discovered the importance of a work ethic.

 

But it exemplifies the "changing of our times"..... a few years ago it would have been an honor to be filmed as the pilot is one of the best in his business.

Marketeye is someone several of us have met and visited with, but he is not our source of information,  he is our facilitator in communication on marketing,  he can't fill all voids.  But he could add a personal view occasionally when he is repeating a worn out line in the sand.

Farming is a tough game and he could be understanding,  rub our backs,  tuck us in.  But that would be off topic....and get him "Ismealed" over to the forum where he would get politically "replumbed".

 

Hobby was right when he was pointing out the sematics involved in being a "grower" rather than a "Producer" of commodities.  The grower term was empahsized by the seed "Giants" who treat us like they own us....

We are well on our way to being contractual growers for international grain or food companies.  The new "marketing" climate and the technology that makes it possible will push us along..... IMO

 

 

 

 

Honored Advisor

Re: HEY marketeye

I don`t see where Marketeye `eliminates the positive and accentuates the negative`, I want reality even if I don`t like what I want to hear...believe me, I need no help being bullish  Smiley Happy  but I do need someone to occausionally take some helium out of my balloon.

 

With this market, at this point in the summer everyone should be able to live with their choices made so far.  I say, if there is "bad news" let`s get it ALL out of the way now as we sit in marketing purgatory.  Don`t waste the fuel now trying to ignite a bull market that will inevitably fail for lack of legs anyway, take the price down to build demand and give endusers their opportunity..get it all washed out.   Then we can get a rally going when we have something to sell.

 

No amount of jawboning is going to talk the market up, the buyers are going to have to come to that conclusion on their own, so let`s get all the excuses out of the way now.

 

Just my 2¢  

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Honored Advisor

Re: HEY marketeye

BA,  The issue gets dicy for us all because US farming, for the first time in many decades, is in the business "battle" without backup...

When much of our competition will have federal support... We are such schrewd negotiators>  Smiley Happy

 

Farm programs and crop insurance are "shaddow" programs at best.  And say to us "if you have price issues and production issues that are fatal to your financial existance, here is a little severence package on your way out the door"..  a far cry from the loan support days where just under break even you could "cheer" the market down and collect your LDP or delay your marketing 9 months while the market clears out the cheap grain...

One of the visions I hate to look at these days, outside of a cute tatoo on an overweight.......... ok let that go....   is the board at the FSA office that lists the loan rates for grain.  My eyes drop to the floor in repentence with the sight.  Vile thoughts follow....

 

We are out there on the tight rope making the annual trek to harvest without a net.  It is encouraging when we see  Ag. media at least acknowledge the risk we choose to take as a nation....and as individuals.  I don't expect them to hold the pole but do expect them to appreciate the risk.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: HEY marketeye

Sw,

 

I completely agree with you and if I had more time I would give you more information.   All I can say, is that times have changed for the better and for the worst but the world is more competitive and business is more global.  But, going back to the initial post, I do not think that Mike, Marketeye is a guilty party.  He has been, in my eyes very neutral and just tries to provide us readers with the information that he can.  I do not think that he tries to hide or mislead us in anyway.  

 

 

Honored Advisor

Re: HEY marketeye

And yet.......we still have to read of good export sales and a somewhat bullish gov't report from a couple of ordinary farmers who just happen to post on this site.     Alrighty then..   Smiley Wink

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Honored Advisor

Re: HEY marketeye

Giolucas,

I appreciate the response,   I think that Mikes interviews and quotes speak for themselves for the last several months.  And I am sure he gets tired of "producer" whining.  But when he gets reports of weather issues and then expresses his doubts by asking for visual evidence in pictures,  what is expected....   

 

I realize that leaves out a lot of other annoying details, but my point is we just finished two weeks of up markets followed by several days of down markets  ------- sharply up and sharply down...... it is what the market does.. .  We shouldn't be shocked or disappointed in movement either way...   I for one would like to see less "opinion" quoted, if we are only going to quote one side of the trades....

 

But what do I know, I still think wheat is a farm product that can be marketed.  Seldom mentioned on our forum..... Maybe that is the problem.... not our forum...  or definitely not the wheat forum.

 

Is it all the wheat raised in Iowa.... or the small world volume...... are we trading "global" market or the iowa market.....

 

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