I think everyone in the markets are having a hard time figuring them out, i can't quite put my finger on what is the major
trigger on all of this inability to make logic of things. We've focused more on usda data (some say the only game in town),
the private numbers are i believe becomming less believed (good or bad ??) the markets just "don't act right", i just
cant explain it, or put in words how to express it.
i think we're getting into more funds, rather than commerical/producer, which was more closer linked to supply/demand
and crop conditions, and attention was paid to producers, today, that seems to be off. today, we are getting alot of
"young kids" in the mix, they lack seasoning, and they open their mouths, for some reason, they want to spin how
good crops look, i think that is part of some basic "seed sales", and "how good and efficiant agriculture is".
today i see "the young bucks", making recomendations, with really no consideration of cost, either thru school or
sales meetings, you need to use the best, to produce the best, and you must produce the best....consideration of
cost efficiancy seems to be gone on the way side. Today they dont bat an eye on the cost of seed or chemical or fertilizer.
they are trained to "use the best", the biggest thing seems to be not to have one single weed on the property.
(have you watched ag phd......to boys must have gotten 3 gallon pump up sprayers for christmas when kids).
It seems we have lost "something", along the way, a farmer must weigh all the options, and take many things
in consideration. But most crop services do not want that, yes chemical all might burn it down in a couple of days
and just smoke it, but chemical b, might get it after a time, and may not be 100% on everything...but can you justifiy
10 dollars an acre (this is for us wheat people, corn and bean people have a bit more freedom, since you might
make more)
back to marketing.....same thing, it seems we have young people in it now, and it's "a job" it seems, they just respit what
they are told, etc, etc, i don't hear many new opinions or different dynamic idea comming from anyone, it's the standard
"world full of gain, high dollar, good crop conditions" yada yada ad nausium.
i think part of it might be the fear of placing any body appendage out, voicing a different opinion, and if right, they will be
the star and the darling, and put in the big off......if they are wrong, they are thrown out of the office. with the job market
as it is, that might be part of it, nobody wants to stick their neck out to say "hey now, something not quite right here",
hard to get a nice job like they have, and plus will have a black cloud over their head.
also, with alot of the "new york crowd" in the market anymore, they use their own game rules used on nyse, and there
people live and die by government reports.....so if we go over to commodities, you listen to the official report, usda,
they should not make mistakes like the fed, dept of commerence, etc.......
if they can "make some money" they will do it, no matter the direction things are going. Totally different mindset than many
in the commodity pits.
add in the programed trading, working on headlines.........
trying to be a market advisor, can be a hazdious business.....esp if you are a young fellow, paying for a nice house, the
wife's minivan or surban and the nice double cab 4x4 they drive to work, saving for college for their 3 kids, and having enough
money to take annual trips and to live "comfortable"......
so we all act like robots......which is the safest thing.
am i close, or did i get a bad batch of sprinkles ?
