2022 was a wild ride for many of us. Locally, it was the driest June-Nov in history. Just enough moisture to grow an average crop of corn, and even eek out a above average on beans. (Great soils that hold water and a very intense soil mgmt system obviously help). But to be fair, genetic enhancement needs to get most of the credit for above average beans. They still made 35 on the hills, the surprise was the low ground making 85, bringing the average to 63. As well, we never had ponding water the entire growing season which is always a blessing for us poor farmers east of the Missy River.
An easy to manage stock market collapse in the 1st half, a incredibly easy to see coming spike in interest rates, and pretty widely anticipated grain market vacuum in June, an pretty interesting election outcome in November, and of course, more insane spending to end the year. Volatility is thankfully here to stay for awhile. It will take a huge crop to flood the market, or a deflationary collapse, either are possible, but not likely until after the seasonal highs give us a chance to protect the revenue per acre. Inputs are high. Risk is higher than any time since the late 1920's in ag, maybe the early 80's but the industry debt levels are far too low for a repeat of that ag depression. The 1920's had very low debt levels, just the costs exceeded the price so much that the game ended badly for almost everyone (except the banks that took the land and kept it).
It is hard to appreciate how good we have all had it the last 36 month, ridiculous wealth accumulation. Pretty sure the 36 month rule will work as it always does. (ie 71 to 74; 77 to 80; 63 t0 66; 05 to 08; 09 to 12; not perfect but perfectly insane to ignore it).
Happy New Year.
