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Honored Advisor

Happy New Year

2022 was a wild ride for many of us. Locally, it was the driest June-Nov in history. Just enough moisture to grow an average crop of corn, and even eek out a above average on beans. (Great soils that hold water and a very intense soil mgmt system obviously help). But to be fair, genetic enhancement needs to get most of the credit for above average beans. They still made 35 on the hills, the surprise was the low ground making 85, bringing the average to 63. As well, we never had ponding water the entire growing season which is always a blessing for us poor farmers east of the Missy River.

An easy to manage stock market collapse in the 1st half, a incredibly easy to see coming spike in interest rates, and pretty widely anticipated grain market vacuum in June,  an pretty interesting election outcome in November, and of course, more insane spending to end the year. Volatility is thankfully here to stay for awhile. It will take a huge crop to flood the market, or a deflationary collapse, either are possible, but not likely until after the seasonal highs give us a chance to protect the revenue per acre. Inputs are high. Risk is higher than any time since the late 1920's in ag, maybe the early 80's  but the industry debt levels are far too low for a repeat of that ag depression. The 1920's had very low debt levels, just the costs exceeded the price so much that the game ended badly for almost everyone (except the banks that took the land and kept it).

It is hard to appreciate how good we have all had it the last 36 month, ridiculous wealth accumulation. Pretty sure the 36 month rule will work as it always does.  (ie 71 to 74; 77 to 80; 63 t0 66; 05 to 08; 09 to 12; not perfect but perfectly insane to ignore it).

Happy New Year.

4 Replies
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Happy New Year

Happy New Year, Time and all.  I`ve been listening to the look back at `22 and predictions for `23 on AgriTalk and Market to Market.   Don Roose on M to M thinks beans are the biggest risk.  Oats and feeder cattle have best chances of being bullish.   Chip talked to Jim Weissenmeyer  who is cautious about interest rates, thinking they will be higher and longer than most are expecting.  Also, the national debt and the service of it can no longer be hidden under the rug.

Farmers are feeling bulletproof and I`ll admit, I can`t see what will derail the ag economy in the short and intermediate  future.  One thing though, as Roose eluded to was 2 yrs ago USDA projected $4.50 corn and $10 beans ... 2 years seems like an eternity ago.  But you go back to the "$3 corn and $9 bean days" add a possible double digit operating notes and stir and things could be gloomy in short order.  Some cockies will say "Good! I don`t borrow money anyway and I`ll buy everyone out!  Har Har Har" ....weeeeeell,  if grain drops below cost of production and as high priced as repairs are, the poorhouse is always right around the corner. 

Good times become good memories and the bad times become good lessons.


Honored Advisor

Re: Happy New Year

less than 12 hrs to go to start the year much better than last year here.

One year ago was still recovering from COVID and trying to get things organized to get somewhere warmer per doctors orders.

Had record prices later on and bu in the bins to take advantage of them.

Did not have record yields with the warm and dry July and August, but did not have a insurance claim. Was a near miss.

Got the opportunity to stand in one place and see two erupting volcanos a few weeks ago.

One of the few cows I have came up open this morning.

Glad she didn't have that calf last week.

All in all a good year in '22

Barring a real black swan event this coming year appears to be a year with promise and prosperity waiting in the wings.

Still clueless as to crop mix I'm gonna go with this year.

Something to look forward to...

Happy New Year to all.


0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: Happy New Year

Happy New Year to you all as well. 
May your 2023 be filled with good health, lots of family time, farming profits, and less politics!

Senior Advisor

Re: Happy New Year

Amen !!


Happy new year to all