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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Happy ??? New Year

Well here we are, 2014 is shot to *+#@ now we face 365 days of struggles that we shall
Call 2015....my first thought is "oh $!@*".

Before you start to think I should change
My name from "elcheapo" to "elgrumpo"
Here is why I'm soo "optimistic"

Wheat.....I am of the opinion we are still
In a drought. The majority of the crop
In this neck of the woods is not the best
Looking. Then temp down to 0 with little
Or no snow cover.
For those "farmers" out there you know
What it means, but the babbling AG media
And the people on the boards say "it has 9 lives"

I guess this leads to the basic problem that
Haunt me.....the action of the markets, or
Perhaps say the lack of "logical" action.
I have visited with several marketing firms
And they agree that the markets act and
"Feel" different from several years
Ago, and making their jobs difficult.
One firm told me one of their best people
Was a fellow who had degrees in psychology and sociology. There was humans trading
And in as such acted like humans and
With this fellows insight, he was very successful, but today, he says there
Is "no heart", it is just "cold and calculated "
The idea is chase the trend, yes you watch
The fundamentals but you keep riding
The winning horse, with the fluid market, you
Don't try to "place" yourself, it is now
More "financial responsible ", to wait
For the trend to develop, and then
Jump on.
Makes it very difficult for the person at
The bottom of the ladder to do much.

Then issues of input costs....most of our
Inputs are greatly governed by energy
Costs.....anyone notice the energy market?

Yet....fertilizer or chemical prices down
As they should....no

Seed prices.....no change...first told seed
Shortage...today...no comment

Most marketing groups keep saying
2015 is going to be difficult.

Our small towns are dying...where most of
Us are located.

Consolidation in everything...fewer implement dealers....we shut down the little ones
Then 60 miles away build a multi million
Dollar building, so all the money "saved"
Goes to help pay the monthly payment
On building.

Our coops who are growing, buying up
little mom and pop elevators....problem,
The coops pay 5 cents a bu less than
the old elevator?

But I'm perplexed. New years is the biggest day alcohol is consumed. Is it to blur the
Memory of the past year, or to numb us to
the outlook of the new year ?

I raise my glass to you my agriculture fellows

Plop plop fizz fizz

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1 Reply
OKdon
Senior Contributor

Re: Happy ??? New Year

Cheapo, Your gonna drive Buck into a short position with that kind of talk.

 

I didn't like the close yesterday in the corn and bean market. We might have a tad too many willing sellers in the cash market during january.

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