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Veteran Advisor
Posts: 4,326
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
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Harvest Update

Seeing more of the light test weight corn tonight - 50 to 52# test.  25% moisture.

 

Lots of combines rolling in the Minneapolis area today.  The weather forecasts for our area suck for tryijng to get any field drying done.  Nothing over 50 degress until the weekend.  And then it doesn't look like anything over the low 50's right now.  Looks like guys are deciding to bite the bullet, pay the drying costs and get it off.  Still a fair number of soybeans also still standing around the area.

 

Saw a newer Deere combine in the field today.  He must've had some kind of chopping head on the combine - man, was it doing a great job on the stalks.  It looked better after the header than I have seen a lot of stalk choppers do.

 

Jen

Honored Advisor
Posts: 5,697
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Harvest Update

Our Yield Watch continues to report better than expected yields, especially bean yields. Nationally we have 938 corn yield reports and the average yield reported is 161.5 bushels per acre. We have 992 soybean yield reports nationally and the average is 50.5 bushels per acre.

The corn yield is a bit larger than other trade estimates but the bean yield is way over everybody else’s numbers. A Reuter’s poll of 16 market analysts on Friday found the average corn yield estimate at 157.2 bushels per acre, up from the USDA’s 155.3 bpa. Soybean yields of 41.9 bpa were above the government’s 41.2 bpa September estimate. We must dig deeper to find out if bean yields are really that much better than others think.

We know that time is precious during harvest and taking any time to report a lousy yield is not high on anybody’s list. The difference is we are sharing the data back with you immediately. We suspect we are getting the good bean yields because they are more fun to report. But, you need to know how big the U.S. yields really are so you can make better decisions.

Look at the soybean chart to the right and you will see that we are only a few days of higher prices away from a soybean Sell Signal. If the bean crop is bigger than the trade thinks, making sales on the Sell Signal makes sense, especially if you have a plan to buy calls on cheaper prices when the true crop size is known.

Let me share our concern. Our largest number of bean yield reports has come from Iowa where 446 reports covering 149,148 acres have been filed. The yield average of those reports is 49.4 bushels per acre, much larger than FCStone’s 41.7 bushels per acre October estimate. Iowa bean acreage is estimated at 9.430 million acres so our sampling is a small percentage of the total Iowa crop, and does not reflect full farm averages.
Senior Contributor
Posts: 1,440
Registered: ‎06-15-2013
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Re: Harvest Update

Around here, the irrigated corn is above average for yield, and the dryland anywhere from a bit below average, to downright pitiful, depending on if you caught a lucky rain or two.

 

What started out as a whisper, which has grown to loud murmuring, is the moisture content of the crops, especially the corn. 

Normally, corn this time of year comes off the field around 16-18, or so.   However, the talk is corn in the mid-20s is common, with some occurances of corn in the upper 20s yet, and even wetter for the latest planted corn.

I talked to a guy 2 days ago, who was still picking high moisture corn for feeding his cattle.   Normally, high moisture corn is picked in the last part of September, which would put him 3 weeks behind or more.

With all this corn out there, and what seems to be early winter storms running through (even where it isn't colt, it seemed to have gotten wet, delaying harvest farther)  I wonder what the final tally will be.

 

Senior Advisor
Posts: 4,440
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
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Re: Harvest Update

Central Kansas harvest is almost diminished down to milo only. There are a few patches of double crop beans yet to be cut, but primarily milo is the only crop left in the field. Weather is also our harvesting foe, most aren't able to get rolling until 3 or 4 in the afternoon, and by 6 or 7 in the evening the grain moisture crawls up to where the elevators will not take it. Yesterday I sampled at 1:00 with 17.7% moisture, 4:00 it was 15.1% so I continued to cut. First full load (about 5:30) was 16.1% but elevator said they would accept what I had on my other trucks. Took the last truck in at 6:45 and moisture was 18.5%. At this rate, it is going to be a long drawn out harvest. Our so called freeze we had last Saturday evidentially didn't freeze hard enough to do us any good. Lots of producers taking this opportunity to get a second cutting from their earlier harvested forage sorghum. The second cutting generally yields around 1/4 to 1/3 of the first on a decent year.
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Veteran Advisor
Posts: 4,326
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
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Re: Harvest Update

A couple guys stopped combining early because of some light snow flurries - just enough sticking to the corn that the corn head had snow built up on it as they were harvesting. Most of the corn we took in yesterday was in the 25 - 27% area. Test weights mainly around 54 or so. Had one load early this morning, moisture was good at 17%, but test weight was only 48. It looked OK as a sample. One of the other gals had a 12% sample yesterday off the field - didn't say what the test weight was though. Haven't had a chance to chat with anyone about yield. Just been trying to stay caught up Smiley Wink

Jen
Senior Contributor
Posts: 181
Registered: ‎01-19-2013
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Re: Harvest Update

Jen

You do understand that test weights increase as corn dries don't you?? I suspect you don't and posting drivel again.