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10-21-2013 11:23 PM
Seeing more of the light test weight corn tonight - 50 to 52# test. 25% moisture.
Lots of combines rolling in the Minneapolis area today. The weather forecasts for our area suck for tryijng to get any field drying done. Nothing over 50 degress until the weekend. And then it doesn't look like anything over the low 50's right now. Looks like guys are deciding to bite the bullet, pay the drying costs and get it off. Still a fair number of soybeans also still standing around the area.
Saw a newer Deere combine in the field today. He must've had some kind of chopping head on the combine - man, was it doing a great job on the stalks. It looked better after the header than I have seen a lot of stalk choppers do.
10-22-2013 06:48 AM
Our Yield Watch continues to report better than expected yields, especially bean yields. Nationally we have 938 corn yield reports and the average yield reported is 161.5 bushels per acre. We have 992 soybean yield reports nationally and the average is 50.5 bushels per acre.
The corn yield is a bit larger than other trade estimates but the bean yield is way over everybody else’s numbers. A Reuter’s poll of 16 market analysts on Friday found the average corn yield estimate at 157.2 bushels per acre, up from the USDA’s 155.3 bpa. Soybean yields of 41.9 bpa were above the government’s 41.2 bpa September estimate. We must dig deeper to find out if bean yields are really that much better than others think.
We know that time is precious during harvest and taking any time to report a lousy yield is not high on anybody’s list. The difference is we are sharing the data back with you immediately. We suspect we are getting the good bean yields because they are more fun to report. But, you need to know how big the U.S. yields really are so you can make better decisions.
Look at the soybean chart to the right and you will see that we are only a few days of higher prices away from a soybean Sell Signal. If the bean crop is bigger than the trade thinks, making sales on the Sell Signal makes sense, especially if you have a plan to buy calls on cheaper prices when the true crop size is known.
Let me share our concern. Our largest number of bean yield reports has come from Iowa where 446 reports covering 149,148 acres have been filed. The yield average of those reports is 49.4 bushels per acre, much larger than FCStone’s 41.7 bushels per acre October estimate. Iowa bean acreage is estimated at 9.430 million acres so our sampling is a small percentage of the total Iowa crop, and does not reflect full farm averages.
10-22-2013 10:30 AM
Around here, the irrigated corn is above average for yield, and the dryland anywhere from a bit below average, to downright pitiful, depending on if you caught a lucky rain or two.
What started out as a whisper, which has grown to loud murmuring, is the moisture content of the crops, especially the corn.
Normally, corn this time of year comes off the field around 16-18, or so. However, the talk is corn in the mid-20s is common, with some occurances of corn in the upper 20s yet, and even wetter for the latest planted corn.
I talked to a guy 2 days ago, who was still picking high moisture corn for feeding his cattle. Normally, high moisture corn is picked in the last part of September, which would put him 3 weeks behind or more.
With all this corn out there, and what seems to be early winter storms running through (even where it isn't colt, it seemed to have gotten wet, delaying harvest farther) I wonder what the final tally will be.
10-23-2013 08:27 AM
10-23-2013 02:34 PM