Heck of a lot going on today

[Jeff_a_Caldwell]

If you want to keep tabs on what the CME Group folks are saying as they look ahead to tomorrow's reports, here's how to watch.

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So, Marketeye's out tending to those new boys of his and the rest of us are sick! But, there's too much going on today, a lot in preparation for tomorrow's USDA reports, so there's no rest for the wicked!

First, we've got lower prices today as everybody's trying to get to sitting where they want to be ahead of tomorrow's numbers (not to mention taking some profits after yesterday's huge day). 

Now, to tomorrow's reports. Here's the latest batch of look-ahead numbers & estimates. 

On top of all that, we've got this PFGBest situation unfolding. Sounds like this onion could really get to stinking, the more layers start to peel away. Here's the latest on that situation. 

One more note today -- CME Group's going to have its normal USDA report press conference TODAY instead of tomorrow. Sounds like it's going to be at 2:30 this afternoon (central time). I'm working with them to get the info for the live video, and will throw that up here when I get it. 

So, a pretty wild day! What's everybody's thoughts on where we'll be trading 24 hours from now? And, anybody touched directly by this PFGBest deal? 

[frankne]

i think they through a bearish corn number out there for the bears to chew on.Good for ten minutes then the bulls will run.My pennies worth

[dapper7]

jeff, what is the point of having a "normal" usda press conference the day before the report? what will be discussed? expectations?

[Jeff_a_Caldwell]

Yep, I think that's the idea. They seem to be struggling with when/how to present their traders'/analysts' thoughts on the USDA numbers now that the trading hours have changed. I think the idea is they feel like they need to do it when the trade isn't in session, and now that trading's going on when the reports are released, they feel like that morning window's closed on them. And, after the last report on the 29th, I think they found that the momentum had all run out of the reports by the time they had their press conference at 2:30 the morning of the report. Hence they're doing it today. 

Not sure what to expect, exactly. Could be 100% dead-on accurate or worthless by the time the trade re-opens! What do you think?

[Palouser]

What's 'accurate'?  With global grain stocks being reduced, China setting another 7 month record for beans, Black Sea and Russia suffering further, 'accurate' becomes a fast moving target.  The dry spell will be the dominant influence. My guess - all else will be momentary and minor. Unless a major change in weather outlook occurs, and that might only be a very temporary feature, all other guesses will be unconvincing or even dismissed if they are too out of line with what players think they are observing out in the fields.