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Veteran Advisor

Here are the cards we have been given

This are not pretty now........and farmers have always had to be thinking next year has to be better, perhaps to help forget the past. Did a little digging today, here is what I found. I'm not quite sure what my comment or suggestion should be. Maybe some of you out there can make something out of it......I present this data to use to think long term. I guess the thing lingering in my mind is, if things are "bad" now, just what does it look like in the future ? I think we will see more production. In my short years (and i'm not as old as you may think, don't let the lack of hair foul you.... havent you ever herd "grass doesn't grow on a busy street"....but then again, grass doesn't grow in rocks either !) Crops have become more productive due to genetics. wheat yeilds more, milo is better, corn, while i don't deal with it much, i do have to say, a neighbor planted some dryland corn on upland, planted low pop which i believe was right....and used the new "drought tolerent" varities, and i have to say, it hung on longer than i would have ever guessed. Add in other parts of the world are growing more and more, i think that variable may be starting to be fixed. Inputs....doubtful if seed will go down. wheat will be the most likly seed to fall, since it is usually grown under contract, and has a set mark up....beans, milo and corn.....too much profit margin, although rumors of corn seed dropping $20 a bag is only around 5% drop Here are the numbers as far as i get can get them Corn dec 15 369 -.05 3.69 dec 16 3.94 -.05 3.89 dec 17 4.05 -.05 4.00 dec 18 4.07 -.05 4.02 (15 yr ave basis at local terminal) Beans nov 15 8.72 -.40 8.32 16 8.64 -.40 8.24 17 8.72 -.40 8.32 18 8.66 -.40 8.26 HRW jly 16 5.05 -.15 4.90 17 5.52 -.15 5.37 18 5.62 -.15 5.47 dap nola sept15 430 local 550 mar 16 403 aug 16 420 uan nola sept 15 208 local 315 mar 16 197.75 aug 16 215 urea gulf bid sept 15 267.50 local 435 mar 16 267 sept 16 284 mar 17 290 gentlemen start your caculators
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3 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: Here are the cards we have been given

This is the way it has been my whole life and ive been farming since 1970....when crop prices go up so does everything else nothing new there.....why do u think there are fewer and fewer farmers? To spread out expenses. My question is who will win in the end? Will the farmer get so large and so few that he can charge what he needs because of the food supply or will he disappear because he will be bought out by agribusiness?

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Honored Advisor

Re: Here are the cards we have been given

If we don`t have a depression to "clean house" as the oldtimers used to say or some other economic reset, farm opperations will get so large that no individual could handle one.  You see 20,000-40,000 acre operations and I don`t think any of `em would turn down a 80 if offered to them.  So, if this trajectory continues and those farms become even larger they will have to about "go public" for capital and have a ceo and the whole corporate shabang, the corporate board may not have a background in production agriculture but rather expertise in manipulating the company`s stock prices like Facebook.  The orginal BTO may be retained as sort of a "ramrod".

 

When the food production becomes in the hands of a few, then the "farmer" will change from being a "price taker" to a "price setter".

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Honored Advisor

Re: Here are the cards we have been given

Agribusiness will take over.  It will happen when they need guaranteed supply.......... as it was in poultry and hogs.....

Management ability has always been the block.

Now the technology is nearly in place.....

 

my opinion only

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