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Honored Advisor

Here we go again.........

Quite a day in the grain markets today.  China again buying soybeans.   Corn looking strong into the close.    

 

Thankfully, we are a long ways from $8.00 soybeans and $2.50 corn that has been predicted by the market advisers for months now.   

 

Just how many times have these guys sold your crop for you and bought it back?   Is anyone still on the plus side of things? Again I will say that I don't need a market adviser.  I can lose money all by myself. 

 

My grain is safely tucked away for now, but thinking about cracking open the slide on the bin for a load or two.

 

What are your thoughts?

 

 

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15 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: Here we go again.........

The closest I'll get to the corn is to check it and turn on the fan. 

That is if we ever get a day with humidity low enough.

 

 

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Highlighted
Senior Contributor

Re: Here we go again.........

The grain experts most sit on the other side of the cubical from the election pollsters.

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: Here we go again.........

Just a word of caution for all those who welded their bin doors closed. If you are in the eastern belt, two important considerations,

1) The grain basis is actually pretty good, 10 over March if you ship this week. Might get better, but it might not. So, limited reasons to hold it for more basis gain (we already captured 30 cents- 20 under to 10 over for goodness sake).

2) The grain quality was pathetic when it went in the bin. It does not get better in the bin. We are having some condition problems on Dec 6th, ridiculous. If you haven't cored bins yet, it might be important to do so pretty quickly.

 3) In years when quality is iffy, the buyers tend to re-train their graders to be critical. If they are full of bad corn, more bad corn is strongly discounted. Never want to be the last guy to deliver corn with 6% damage that becomes 9% in their view.

Veteran Contributor

Re: Here we go again.........

Time, have you found any rhyme or reason to what is going on with this quality issue. We just dumped all the bad stuff as soon as it was discovered( not as bad as your area). However Iowa corn is good, so I believe someone who is getting high vomo will blend and make a boat load of money. Also what levels haveyou heard for rejection.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Here we go again.........

I don`t want to be accussed of spreading "fake news" but I heard that 50% of corn is priced compared to this time last year.  Now, if that`s true, this could be thin ice, because in the next few months a "John Deere low" and landlord rent will be coming due so a wall of grain could be coming as cash will be require.  Don`t know if the proper term would be "liquidity trap" but that`s what could happen.

 

The shylock Chinese have to know about the "John Deere low" so I don`t know why they`re buying...well they`re more buying beans than corn too.  But everytime I get cute and try to out guess a buyer, they turn on a dime like a herd of hungry cows in a fresh cornfield, so who really knows?  Smiley Happy

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Here we go again.........

That RayJenkins video has an interesting chart of when grain is marketed.  The John Deerre Low is getting smoothed out, as Roy Smith, the analyst who invented it, has been saying.

 

I can't speak to what percentage has been priced compared with last year, but in my case it's about the same.

 

 

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Advisor

Re: Here we go again.........

Really, how many + $'s would all of us be if we had only bought these analysts highs and sold their lows +2% commission. The land of opportunity USA, USA, 🇨🇳 what??
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Senior Advisor

Re: Here we go again.........

Post from llakmf : Time, have you found any rhyme or reason to what is going on with this quality issue. We just dumped all the bad stuff as soon as it was discovered( not as bad as your area). However Iowa corn is good, so I believe someone who is getting high vomo will blend and make a boat load of money. Also what levels  have you heard for rejection

 

I will just throw in my 2 cents - till Time reply's - But the problem is mostly weather related - It was really wet in East Central IN in the spring - then it go hot and humid - dew points 66 to 74 every day - it was a breeding ground for disease here .  One major problem was when it was found - the best thing you could do was to shell it - and dry it down quick - to like 14 % , What that did was to stop the growth of the fungus , it did not solve what you already had - just kept it from getting worse .  Many around here - opted to let it dry down in the field to save on cost's - yet that may have been the worse thing you could do - as the fungus kept growing .

 

This has lead to many problems , as Time said - storage being one of them  , but the ethanol guys has a big problem , when the corn is run threw there process - it  X's 3 times in final DDG's - you can not feed high Vommo to Hogs - but birds can take a higher amount-  I do know that some of the DDG's from North east IN are makeing there way to AR , Also look at corn from our area headed to the South East = birds .

 

With the feight charge - I would think they just about have to be giving the  DDG's away . Don't quote me on this - but I think that from 6 % to 9 % = a .20 discount , And I have heard that there is plenty of that out there around here .

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: Here we go again.........

As usual, EC has good information. To add a little more, we don't have any VOMO in our area. It is mostly in the areas where the guys planted like crazy in the mud in April with certain genetics (flying D has disease issues as usual). So, it is pretty manageable for the most part. I was really talking about the other molds and damage in general. As EC said, this was caused by weather. In some areas, like our home base, we had over 8" of rain in August in over 12 events. Husks didn't get dry for weeks. This was preceded by the normal heat/dry stress for the first week in august. So, basically, for all kinds of reasons, the plants just died in august during fill. Normal kernels per bu for us would be 88,000 to 90,000, lots of 96 to 98,000 counts this year.

 

Plus, we said all year the corn (2/3) planted from 5/20 to 5/24 just got way to tall. Some laughed, but the reality is the corn got too tall, too much leaf area, and no ability to take stress from any direction. 

 

In the end, we end up with the best looking corn ever, being average in yield, with high levels of molds and damage. 

 

I was just trying to warn guys not to ignore the quality risk in the E belt. We shipped about 1/4 of the crop in Dec on the good basis bids to get everything stable for a few more months. The odds of a nasty low in corn in Feb at first notice day for deliveries seem very high. Kind of hope it happens.

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