cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Senior Contributor

Hey Mt

How high do you think this corn can go?
0 Kudos
10 Replies
Veteran Contributor

Re: Hey Mt

4 more days like today and the July 12 contract will hit its old highs. Might be some resistance there.
0 Kudos
Veteran Advisor

Re: Hey Mt

little bit of a reality check, eh?

 

For corn and soybeans to really breakout, we will need to see oil go back to its highs and the dollar to its lows.

 

$15 soybeans and $6 corn for the new crop months are probably good prices to grab, barring any new events.

0 Kudos
Veteran Advisor

Re: Hey Mt

I set my goal around $6 for some new crop sales, so chances are, the wise thing to do would be either sell at $5.75, or hold out for $7, LOL.

0 Kudos
Senior Advisor

Re: Hey Mt

at this point the only thing that could stop it is a 2 inch rain and moderate temps within 10 days across 70% of the cornbelt...........

 

OR INTERVENTION..........

 

we will know about the first and its effect in two weeks, and have an idea of what the next two look like............long range models would suggest this corn crop is in uncharted waters...........

 

you need to be on your toes for the second as its effects will probably have a lasting impression, and you need to be one set ahead..........it will truely be a sell first and sell everything now and ask questions later............

0 Kudos
Senior Contributor

Re: Hey Mt

I'm not going to make a call on how high we go, but I will make a prediction.  I'd compare this year to last year and 2002 where we'll have a short crop and a very long tail.  In 2002, corn rallied to near 3 bucks a bushel right before harvest.  I know a lot of guys that held until July of 2003 only to sell corn for around 2.10 a bushel.  Last year, we were right at 8 bucks in August.  Even with all the crowing going on about basis, we're still considerably lower on the cash price than then.  I'd venture to guess since we're two weeks or so advanced from normal that we'll see our highs for corn sometime in July with a very long tail to follow.  If I had to make a line in the sand, I'd put it around 6.50 on the Dec. futures.  

0 Kudos
Senior Contributor

Re: Hey Mt

At least at 6.50 your over your insurance price. These markets are going to get wild and like you say if you are not at the right place to be ready to sell it could fall out of bed. I just think it has another 1 to 1.50 upside and then I will think heavily on sellin. Beans I am going to hold out for a while.
0 Kudos
Senior Reader

Re: Hey Mt

I would like to know what you think the gov't intervention will be. I am on the other side of the fence. I do not grow much corn at all but I feed a large amount. At this point I feel blessed. I live in south west michigan, the crop here looks good at this point. We do need rain badly,north of here they have gotten suffecient rains and they are growing more corn every year up there. Anyway back to the point, what will the intervention be, I can't just turn off the switch on my animals they need to eat and it takes 5 months from the time I put them down to finish.

0 Kudos
Senior Contributor

Re: Hey Mt

I would venture to guess the intervention talk has to do with the gov't relaxing the ethanol mandates.  I'm not saying it can't happen, but we must all remember this is the gov't.  Even if they do it, it more than likely won't go into affect for another year.  The EPA is fining blenders as we speak because they're not blending cellulosic ethanol even though there's no commercially produced cellulosic ethanol out there.  The other intervention talk could have to do with exports.  However, one must keep in mind our exports of new crop corn really haven't been very good because Brazilian corn is roughly 40 bucks a metric ton cheaper than our corn.  Considering the grain embargo was tried once and failed, I highly doubt we go down this path again.

0 Kudos
Senior Contributor

Re: Hey Mt

There were alot of opportunities to tie up corn on the board when it was below 5. I would blame the USDA for not telling there was a drought coming but they were still predicting a 166 yield. They got alot of people in trouble by sellin to cheap and not coverin needs.
0 Kudos