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Senior Contributor

Hey Rightone

I see you are still deluding yourself that the crop is under 13 billion. What gives?
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14 Replies
Veteran Contributor

Re: Hey Rightone

Steve the SW Minnesota NW Iowa crop is well above average.  Anybody that says different is telling you that they don't have anything sold.  Beans 48 to 74 and averaging in the 50-55 range.  Corn have heard 170-225 and averaging in the 180-190 range.  Basis is holding together as most corn going to on farm storage with many beans going to town.  This corn crop is better than 13.5 billion?  IMHO the good will easily pull the poor UP.  Denial, isn't that a river somewhere??!!

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Hey Rightone

Yep. Hey I realize there were serious issues out there is year and some folks do have bad crops. The fact of the matter is that those that thought they had average crops have really good crops and those that thought they had really good crops have phenomenal crops. These are making up for the poor crops. We are at 14 maybe more.
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Senior Advisor

Re: Hey Rightone

And let's not forget the sorghum crop will also aid in some areas where the corn crop did struggle.
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Frequent Contributor

Re: Hey Rightone

I am so glad that some of you folks are having great yields, but you are looking only at your own backyard, Our area of Illinois has not been so well blessed, early stuff planted in late April and early May has been great but only about 10% or so was put in at that time. Stuff put in the end of May and June is not making APH by quite a bit. Have been selling contracted crop at elevators and there are no waiting lines. Yes, we have a crop but it will be lucky to make average around here and most folks know it. Any fool can crow that they have super yields during a drought, but at the end off the year when moisture and shrink are factored in some don't have as much as what they think they do. When corn flirted with the 8 dollar mark many of us knew it would not last and if it gets down to a three in front of it other crops become more economically viable. I fail to see how some folks feel justified that there may be a 14b crop or larger just as those who wish for a 11b or less. I know that the market does not care directly about COP but farmers do and indirectly the market will as supplies lesson. It would be nice to have a market that is stable that allows a decent profit over COP and donT begrudge anyone for hoping that Huge carryovers don't return. We all make management decisions on how to market our crop sometimes you get lucky and sometimes you don't. The wheel always turns and the older you get the more you grow to appreciate that fact.
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Senior Advisor

Re: Hey Rightone

I will ask one question and make one comment ..............

With all these record breaking yields can you all tell me what year your old record was set?

I believe the last time this question was asked the results came out all over the board......I will dig for link from other site........

Point is. Record yields have been made all over the last decade or so. Outside the years of 04 and 09 no less. Thus how do you justify 160 plus based on your backyard that means nothing as proven for over a decade........

If record yields in one area mean a blow out nat avg then we should have upped the Annie every single year since at least 04........if you start in 04 and draw a trend line thru 12 it's down not up..........

10 percent above aph and 10 percent below aph means aph for the nation. Which is about 146ish

Heck I will spot you 150 on 85.5M harvested is 12.8...........not even 13B........and closer to 11 something than 14 something
Senior Contributor

Re: Hey Rightone

Are you seriously still clinging to your little fantasy that the corn crop is under 12 billion?  Get real hotshot.  You blew this one.  This crop is very close to 14 if not actually.  I will consider a 13.8 or 13.9 close enough to call it 14.  You were telling us all summer long how the late crops were going to burn up or surely freeze.  Well a few areas were dry and many of them got rain that prevented them from being terrible.  As far as a freeze is concerned it is the middle of October and we have yet to have a frost or freeze in north central Illinois.  Haven't heard about widespread frost or freeze in Missouri or Iowa either.  Fact of the matter is late rains and much later than normal frost and freeze salvaged a much better than anticiapted yield on the late planted ground.  Add that to the millions of acres that were planted timely and had good growing conditions and you end up with a big yield.  We are at 13.5 to 14 deal with it.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Hey Rightone

SIF, good post. I will admit that my marketing skills are the weak portion of my entire farming operation. In the past, most of my sales where made when I needed cash. I have implemented an option strategy that has worked well this year due to the fact that we had elevated prices early in the season. Having an off the farm job eliminates the need for me to deduct the cost of living from my farm income and therefore making a profit might be a little easier for me than most. However, I am wanting (in the very near future) to become a full time grain farmer and also reenter the cattle business. If I want to continue with my debt free operation, I will need to step up my marketing plan. I've even considered hiring a marketing service for some guidance, but this only adds to the overhead costs. Marketing has almost replaced manual labor as the most time consuming aspect of my operation, but smartphones and text messages has also made up to the minute information literally at our fingertips. I believe all the marketing tools are right in front of us, but like anything else a tool is useless unless we know how to use it correctly.
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Senior Advisor

Re: Hey Rightone

I honestly believe that when we are talking 14B or 11B whatever you believe it's gonna end up is not for a corn crop only. I am from an area that doesn't produce a lot of corn, but some and we produce an enormous amount of milo. We've got a few E plants scattered around the country and also lots of cattle just about 85 miles to the SW of my location. People might laugh when I keep mentioning milo, but it can and will be substituted for corn in ethanol production as well as livestock feed. Thus making an 11B crop (if that's what it is) stretch that much further. Corn doesn't need to be a huge crop to make all the numbers work out, it only needs to be something of average or slightly better. Just saying.
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Veteran Contributor

Re: Hey Rightone

MT everybody has an opinion and that is what makes a market.  If everybody thought the same way things just wouldn't work.  I am in the same camp as Illinois Steve in that I believe this crop is big.  I don't believe the prevent plant acreage situation is correct and that when all is said and done the USDA will add some harvested acreage and whenever they give us another report they will raise the trend line yield.  When that comes about we will get the same ol story how the USDA is screwing the farmer, but it doesn't matter because right or wrong the trade WILL trade the USDA numbers.  Don't fight the trend!!   

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