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Veteran Advisor

Hi Guys

It's another sleepless night with this stinking cold.  I was looking at some of the threads from the past, and came up this this gem written to C-X-1 (where are you?):

 

 

 
Senior Contributor
Wrestler
Posts: 208
Registered: ‎01-19-2013
 
0
 

Re: it will not flipping give up.......

No harm, no foul. I asked you if you knew anything about production ag, and you have spent the last 2 days trying to prove that you do. You admitted that you are a trader who does nothing, but sit behind a computer screeen all day. Your grandpa may have farmed, but you don't know jack. Don't know why this whole site wants to jerk you off. BTW I have taken most of your money the last 2 years.The sky is falling works with farmers, who don't have a plan.

 

 

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14 Replies
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Hi Guys

Hi guys - I don't know what happened to the above post - gremlins I guess.  I tried to fix it - it got worse.  Sorry - I'm far too tired to redo it.  Maybe one of the marketing gurus can help me out and fix it for me.  I'm out of ideas....

 

Jen

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Hi Guys

Just got back from timers annual meeting. A roadmap for the future was laid out. As always mother nature will cause the map to be changed at times but the bin it and forget it of the last several years probably isn't the best course of action. Bin it and defend it or better yet defend it, bin it, and enhance it is probably gonna be the course of action for the next several months to a half year. It seems that with the huge amount of grain that is about to hit the market that the commercials will sell into every basis rally in anticipation of needing to make room for the next futures rally, or John Deere low or normal Jan 1 marketing of farmers.    This quote .... The sky is falling works with farmers, who don't have a plan..... especially the part of not having a plan is why only 20% of the crop is sold to date.

 

   Has the sky quit falling this year, history says no ... there are analogous years that this year is following ..... bin it and pay storage or bin it and don't defend and enhance increase the odds of a long cold winter. Bin it, buy a call and pay storage actually dramatically increases business risk.   Look at the macd indexes on corn, beans and bean meal, they are in very precarious positions. Time is the only thing that will clarify.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Hi Guys

Jen, I'll fix it for you.........

 

Grow it, bin it, go on vacation, sell it at a better price, and ignore all those who disagree.

 

There.......it's fixed.     Smiley Wink

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Hi Guys

Ehoff, now where you been? I saw last night that it has been months since your last log in. I figured that you'd be out defending your master. Sooooo, you use a lot of nice sounding words, I didn't say buy a call, why? I'm already long with a bin full of corn, why double down my risk in something that has a 95%+ chance of expiring worthless? So, tell us the rest of the plan Ehoff. I'm sure it probably involves selling some calls above the market, to pay the cost of buying some puts to defend against the price going down. And if the price stays stagnant, or goes up, who's the loser here? My success rate is in buying and selling options is very poor. Even if your right, your often wrong. Those are one of those marketing things that look great on paper. And what happens when you can't get out of the option, as has happened to me many times. I find options are one of those things like a time share - you're wined and dined when you buy in - now try to get out when you can't sell it and you're left holding the bag for the rest of your life with fees that you didn't see coming. Will it work sometimes - sure. So did the "shock and awe" campaign that landed us in war for the last 10+ years, and is bankrupting our country blowing up rocks. But it sure looked good - for a little bit? Right?

Jen

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Hi Guys

I,ve been hanging out enjoying your weather forecasts, which have been quite good I might say. Now who is this master you think I should be defending? I didn't intend to infer that you said to buy a call so sorry about that. We are now in a different marketing paradigm than we have been in for the past 4n years where bin it and f0orget it worked every year. Now we need to enhance it. In a year or 3 we will have another event that will give us an opportunity to market for a couple of years forward. imo. I will never figure out how you got stuck in an option that you couldn't get out of. Would you explain that one a bit further. Really enjoy your weather posts. I think I have the same cold you do. Its a bugger.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Hi Guys

Hi Ehoff - like I said I just noticed your last check on was several months ago, and at that time you were defending Time.  I'm sure he has some good points.  But like I said, for me, options in the past have been a disaster.  And it's not for a lack of understanding.

 

I know my relation in Evansville did very good with his option strategy last year.  This year - not so much.  He had to cover the puts that he sold early in the year with futures positions to keep from losing a substantial amount of money.  As most know - when selling an option, your potential loss in unlimited.  It's not the simple strategy it sounds like.  And now my relation not only has the puts to worry about, but also (I think) 15 futures positions on to cover the calls, and not to mention the loss sustained on the calls he had bought because he felt the market was going to go higher.  He FELT that he was OK when he did it.  I advised him not to.

 

As for me, it's been quite a few years ago, when we didn't have the electronic trading.  I bought some options in SB, (not only for myself, but also for some of my co-workers that didn't have an account) and we had a nice profit built into them (I think it was .15).  The market was volitile - there was a bid on the board to buy - I got 1 sold, and the bid dropped to .13. I put in an offer for that - didn't get filled, the next time I called, it was down to .05.  Put in an offer for that - didn't get filled.  Beans then went limit down, I was unable to get out, and the rest of the options (I think we had 10 or maybe a few more) expired worthless a few weeks later.  I tried several other times after that to do options, and never made a dime on any of them.  Maybe it's just me.  But given that 95% or so of these things expire worthless, I doubt that it's just me.  I'm not sure what my relation is going to lose on his option strategy this year, but it is going to be substantial.  

 

The thing is, there is no guarantee that any of these schemes will make money.  Can they - yes.  Can they loose money - oh, you betcha.  Just ask my relation - he's made money, he's lost money.  I hope to think that he made more than he lost, but I don't know.  The thing is, you still need to guess right.  You guess wrong - or are led down the primrose path by your trusted marketing guru, and it's going to cost you.  With margins on the crops below break even right now, the last thing someone needs is to lose and addtional .15 to a dollar doing a options scheme.   And ultimately, it's your name on the line with the futures broker, not your market advisor.  Market advisors are really good about tooting their horn when they're right.  I'd like to see the reality of what happens when they are wrong, or a full disclosure of all Market Advisors who advertise the service for sale, so everyone can see just what they are actually buying into.  If a market advisor doesn't do that, I wouldn't buy into what they are selling, no matter how great they make it sound.  It follows the old adage - IF IT'S TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE, IT PROBABLY IS.....

 

I slept most of the day today, after not getting to bed again until 5:30 of so.  Hopefully, by tomorrow afternoon when I have to go to work, this thing will be on the downside.  

 

Jen

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Hi Guys

hey Jen,

been a dull boy just posting on the other site.

you see my Houston fall foliage pics on here week before last?

 

y'all getting any color up nort?

 

i was wondering same thing about you when i didn't see the weather post for a few days.....still been reading everyday.....see ya soon.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Hi Guys

Hi C-X-1!   I'm actually not at home, I'm here teaching in Oklahoma City.  I'm here for another 4 weeks, and then head back to MN for a little over a month to get things done there before freeze up.

 

It's been dry here in OKC - we could use a rain.  Lawns are turning brown, most of the sea birds seem to have left already, though I did see an Egret on my walk at the park yesterday.  

 

When I left from Minneapolis a couple of weeks ago, I was just starting to see some color in some of the trees.  I also came upon my first wooley bear caterpillar.  It has the least amount of hair on it that I have ever seen.  Now, from what I hear, the weather service is calling for a very severe winter up North again, cold, lots of snow.  But the wooley bear said otherwise, for what it's worth.

 

Nice to see you still hanging around.  I was hoping that you would check in.  It was this time last year that you were being called cut and paste boy by our favorite poster, whom I came upon last night when I couldn't sleep.  Interesting how the mind works sometimes.

 

Anyway, nice to see that you checked in.  I'm battling this cold, and have been running a bit of a fever the last couple of days.  I'm hoping to be able to go to work tomorrow, but we'll see.  I don't want to get any of the students there sick.  They can't afford to be sick or lose 1 day of training, let alone be out for a few with this nasty cold I've been battling this weekend.  I was hoping to get a bunch of studying done this weekend - that didn't work out so well.  

 

I did get my computer back - the one that I fried on vacation a few months ago.  My son and I put in a new mother board, the only one I could find on the internet was a Revision G, the one in the computer was a Revision F.  I thought it might work.  It didn't.  Took it in to Best Buy, they sent it in and put the Revision F back in, and it's as good as new.  Actually, better, since while I was at it I up graded both the RAM and the processor when I got it back.  Hopefully, it continues to work.

 

Anyway - I'm off to bed - hopefully I can sleep tonight.

 

Jen

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Senior Contributor

Re: Hi Guys

Jen, I too enjoy your weather comments! 

 

In regards to Time,  I have followed him closely for almost 60 months now and what your relation has done in Evansville is not what Time has done.  I am sitting here typing with the best marketing year success in my 33 years of farming.  And that, beacuse I followed Time's timing!  That is all I will say. Time can defend himself.

 

 

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