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Advisor

Re: Highs and Lows

Ok, let's try this, by mid march cash soys go to $16.50 new soys go to 13.50 how many acres will these prices "steal" away from our projected 99 million 2013 corn acres? Likely, IF this scenario developed, alot of those "swing" acres would not be in prime growing region and would coincidentally raise possible harvest yields?

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Senior Contributor

Re: Highs and Lows

MZ Tiger- excuse me for being an idiot, but when you refer to PEAK CORN, you refer to the same as PEAK OIL, correct?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Highs and Lows

Yes, MIke,

 

indeed the charts reveal the specific prices on particular dates....I used mid - July and Nov 8th

 

the enormous range of possibilities is due to the fact that both of these grain charts/prices are in Rarified / Thin air.

 

the highest guess is based on more of the lines being support - the low estimates = resistance

 

roarin, everybody, i'm attempting to give y'all as much practical (in lay terms) information as I can on my threads w/ direction for that day or week..

As Tom said we have scalpers on up the longer term traders/investors/farmers.

 

EVERYONE, tell me what you want to know....give some feedback and i'll tailor accordingly.....Maybe 2-3 different timeframes...if you are following, you will get a better sense of my sentiment overall. What i'm thinking is wkly sentiment for all 3, and also drilling down as much as can be practical for traders to benefit in beans? ?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Highs and Lows

MT, Jim Meade was saying on Good's thread that insurance pays more for corn and thus is part of the incentive for more acres.

 

Do you know if insurance is different for different ground? ie. will they pay less in an already drought stricken area?

 

When do the companies inform farmers what coverage will be/premiums, etc

 

thanks,

 

c-x-1 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Highs and Lows

I believe Fed. Crop Ins. premiums are not set until after Feb...........Dec corn futures in Feb. establish the Spring corn insurance price and Nov.soybean futures in Feb. establish the Spring soybean insurance price.

 

 John

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Highs and Lows

thanks John,

 

c-x-1

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Honored Advisor

Re: Highs and Lows

ehoff4187600,   and mike,  

 

Total BS,   For those south of a line from Colorado Springs to St. Louis -------------- 2011 was the last drought year and it was followed by 2012.  Those of you that think this one is over better adjust your production plans and not be foolish enough to sell what you may not have.

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: Highs and Lows

Sorry my knowledge that Peak Corn is a pure fiction doesn't fit into your world view, regardless of that,

My questions are valid ones and still stand unanswered.

 

1. What do you do if you are right....maybe 15% chance of that.

2. What do you do if you are wrong?....maybe 85% chance of that.

Just statistics of what happens the years after major droughts in North America.

Odds of 4 years below trend in a row are less than 5%, not that you will let the historic facts sway your worship of the "PEAK corn" concept.

 

So, how do you tell when you are wrong and when it is TIME to protect price so that you can survive.

It is important to remember that the big money knows these statistics better than anyone on this site. SO, they will discount it UNITL PROVEN wrong.

 

On the other point, crop insurance virtually requires the fringe states to plant corn, at least until we have a 4Bil carryout, or until beans are 3x the price of corn.

 

Our Ohio farm grew 86 bu corn this year. After adding in crop insurance, ROE of about 45%. Numbers even RSW would have find acceptable. You just have to love this country. We will be 20% C-C in Ohio next year (meaning 70% corn-30% beans). Just can't afford not to do it.

 

Rained in NE, NWIA, and MN this week....that should give a bull pause.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Highs and Lows

Spit on the dust and you call it a drought busting rain.

7+ corn & 13+ beans will guarantee peak acres, maybe a freak year of peak bu's BUT not trend line yield.
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Honored Advisor

Re: Highs and Lows

Time

 

Odds of 4 years below trend in a row are less than 5%, not that you will let the historic facts sway your worship of the "PEAK corn" concept.

 

Your totally wrong on this one point--------- If trend continues to raise even though 4 years are below trend, then the odds of reaching trend continue to be poor and at some point it becomes likely that trend cannot be reached even with consistant acres.

If price reflects 4 below trend years(and it does), price will buy acres and trend line yield will be even more difficult to reach.

--------------------

There are not two choices:   

1. What do you do if you are right....maybe 15% chance of that.

2. What do you do if you are wrong?....maybe 85% chance of that.

West we have no choice but to plan production for more drought----less acres under irrigation, cheaper expenses on dryland.

And we must market with the possibility of timely rain and a very close eye on a decent profit margin above expenses.  Taking care that we do not market too much early.

 

The most difficult problem for us will be a run up in prices in the spring as we continue dry... Good opportunities without a clue what we will raise.

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