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elcheapo
Senior Advisor

Hometown theifs

Hello boys and girls 

I have a bone to pick with the grain merchants in the area.

Due to the "inverse" in the market, for our grains in storage, both over the scale and elevator...rather than quoting the nearby market....which has been done for years...and the proper thing....they are going off of july....one elevator is quoting cash price off of sept KC Wht !!!!

They say they have too.....

What about me ???

I took the risk....I have to take full risk in the open markets, now to be quoted and paid off the wrong contract.

We have not had good years...and looking at a drought....so we must try to make as much as we can, yet cut off at the knees.....

Question is, is this legal...and if so under who's area is it ?

Is making me sick....what ever happened to "the market is always right"....well it is, the nearby (cash)

Contract, is saying too much going on, investors fleed to commodities...plus #4 exporter is at war...and nobody will buy from russia...that all screams high price...

Yet, smoke and mirrors are used aginst us to gip us out of money....some of which is owned by us....

So maybe im not going to feel so bad dumping bad grain on the bottom of a load, or if grain is dry, put the truck under a mister...

If anything cftc should say something....or state att, or state board of ag.

 

Nothing but crickets.

 

 

 

 

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4 Replies
timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: Hometown

Just another result of global e-trading and letting the specs living in Dubai shining skrscrapers control the paper price of things. (Which is not the same as the actual local cash value of things).

This spike in wheat has done a nice job of severely punishing cash grain merchants. Corn and beans as well. Their no risk gravy train just ran off the tracks at max speed. This happens every time there is a drought in a major producing area, or a spec driven perceived shortage like 2008 in the wheat/corn/beans,  the cash merchants just can't hedge their price risk and therefore have to do something to still offer a market. Market inversions are just real tough for a cash trader to manage. As opposed to doing a "no-bid" which would be a pretty rational solution, they roll out to a more rational hedging vehicle. If you are smarter than they are you can always trade the inverse, ie sell the nearby and buy the deferred....but just beware that spread trading during inversions has bankrupted a lot of smart people over the years. 🙂

k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Hometown

Time  -  excellent  points  ,  of  what  might be  called,   electronic  extorsion ,  at  it's  finest  ,  while  the  pretend  story  of  Russian  airline  lease  defaults  would  pose  the  ?  of  '' careful  whom  you  do  business  with ''    -  -  -    

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Hometown

  • I can't imagine with all the technical hand holding between the US and China that the risks are running extremely high.
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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Hometown

The  A . P.  I.  so  called  weekly  END- vin - tory  ,  similar  to  U S D A  reports  - maybe , leaves  one  asking  about  the  Member  Fee   &   the  ''' NON  MEMBER ''' fee$  and  whom  the  surject  committee  might  be  - ?           

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