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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Hope ?

it's almost 1 am while writing this, was working in the field today, before the next round of rain.

 

While working, I was running numbers in my head and the like, no wonder I had a headache tonight.

 

been in a mood this evening..thusly up this late.

 

Hope..........when all else fails, you have hope.....I think we're fast approaching that point.

 

what I am hearing and being told, things are getting worse, not better.  The other day I was offered

 

a car lot to buy..........my cost, assume the note, no money.  The fellow just wants to get out from under it.

 

I looked at the markets this afternoon on the smart phone, beans 8.50 new crop corn 3.20 wheat 3.50.

 

yes, you might make some money, but the question, is it going to be enough to cover expenses ?

 

The question is, just what needs to happen to raise our grain prices ?

 

let's see, wheat planting to levels down to 108 years....

 

we see corn fields under water for miles

 

just what has to happen to see a rise ?

 

years ago, I was asked to write emergency operations plans.....from dams breaking......disease outbreak......your typical

 

end of the world stuff......even if aliens landed !!

 

I look back to all of that......I really can't see what would change things that much.

 

I really can't see much "hope" right now

 

 

 

 

 

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9 Replies
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Hope ?

Well, the slowest lion starves and the slowest gazelle gets eaten.  For all of us to get the holy grail of "$7 corn" we can`t all be raising 200+ bushel corn, someone has to "take one for the team" for that to temporarily happen.   Hate to say it, but the glory years of 2008-2013 were an aberration, none of us might never live long enough to see that again.  We had strategic droughts, ethanol gaining traction and the inflation hedge funds that kept that little taste of heaven going for those 5 wonderful years..now we`ll spend the next few years "paying the fiddler", then we can get back to "2006", if we can live with that.

 

But farming is too much fun, too many are willing to do it for free.  And they have a lucrative construction business or car dealership and are perfectly happy plowing some of that money into their hobby of farming.  Those dependent on buying their Wonder bread and Skippy peanut butter with their corn & bean checks are at a huge disadvantage, not saying they can`t compete, but that is what they are up against and need to tighten their belts accordingly. 

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BF2012
Advisor

Take one for the team?

Well, after 15" of rain in 10 days,  we get almost dry enough to commence farming, and last night we got clubbed like a baby seal by another 2-5" from here North........ That taking ONE for the team is ok with me....but when you've had the chamber emptied into you, well, how about someone else taking the pain for a change.   El Cheapo talks about losing Hope?   Well, my wife just got back from a reunion with some of her college sorority sisters from the 70's.... some of the horror stories of bad things happening in people lives from their children to cancer etc....job losses, losing homes, failing health disasters that are unthinkable.....and yet there were others their that seemed to have gone through life unscathed by calamity.   It made her ( and me ) Thankful for the blessing we have in spite of our problems.   Why does God mete out all of the pain on some, and some never seem to end up like Job in the Bible?   Guess we'll never know.   Life is not fair.   At least, when we seem to have lost hope, we can cling to our Faith.   That will have to be enough for now.

 

Hope things improve for everyone.  

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Take one for the team?

Top notch BF,

 

We worship the wrong things way too much........

It seems many of us think God wrote the constitution....

 

Pain...........I don't think God meters out ......................never fell for that one.

But what i have always struggled with is the notion of equality as a noun.  Or the idea that a group of people can create it....

Our "equality" was an adjective rather than a noun in law..... equal opportunity...... equal justice under the law..... equal protection.

 

The declaration of independence declares all men created equal....and I am sure it means under laws but directly quoted is one of the most obviously wrong statements when taken out of context of law.   

I think that is why Christs directives to "Love one another" is addressing the issue.

 

For clearly we are not created equal and  it is obvious when we consider how some can see the pain coming and even avoid it at times and others catch pain straight on the nose without a clue.  

Most obvious is the difference between men and women....... Thank _____       ..... well I am happy with the differences and need the different perspective provided by that arrangement.  But equal in no way or form equal.....meaning the same...

Many of my age group have wasted a lifetime trying to demand that reality be changed and have set their feet to never accept the obvious.

 

But then most of us still haven't accepted a lot of the obvious........................ like the inevitability of death.

When I visit with business managers and owners who never prepare for that next "operator" change.

I had a great friend who told lots of stories in his years of managing life insurance,,,,, people are not equal, physically or mentally.

 

 

 

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Take one for the team?

BF, Northen Iowa Southern Minnesota takes it on the chin all the time for the rest of the cornbelt .  I`ll never forget 2013 a foot of snow on May 2 and 100º on about May 12 and you had until May 16 to get any planting you was going to do because the next 30 days straight it rained and there was beans planted on the 15th of July.   Our weather has been between screwed up and messed up every since.  What`s frustrating is sometimes 50 miles in either direction they can plant and good going.   But in `13 big parts of the I states claimed it was the best crop they ever had.  We`re so used to bad weather that this spring is just a "normal spring" for us and we`re adapting as such.

 

Last fall was the worse harvest I remember, terrible wet.  I don`t think we really know who`s taking it for the team until the combines roll.   But I know you guys south of here are getting hit with deluges (that we usually get) I wish you guys the best, a farmer is lucky to get 40 turns at bat in their lifetime and you sure don`t want to strike out on even one swing.   I think you`ll get it in, it`ll just seem like an eternity to get rolling.  Best of Luck to you all.

sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Take one for the team?

I think it started getting totally unreliable in the 1990's for us.  We raised a good average wheat crop, grazed it in the winter and cut 30-40 bu wheat constantly beginning in 1960 through early 1990's......... Then we moved to better equipment and shorter coleoptile wheats and have been struggling to raise a good crop ever since...... weather is unpredictable and when we get a good crop it is 50-60 bu/a but real poor until we get another one...sometimes ten yrs apart.  

Irrigation takes the variation out a little for corn and beans but the dry land has been tough since the 1990's.... 

I remember in 1974 dry land farmers thinking how stupid irrigation was when you could raise steady 40 bu wheat and 80 bu. milo on dry land...  

Wheat is just a hard crop to loose for us..... but we will adjust.... in 1972 we were planting 70% continuous milo and just a little wheat. For the same reason....... Wheat sitting in every elevator under government loan... and farm sheds full of wheat in eastern colorado.

That all changed with one overnite trade.

 

BF.................. hold her hand...... it helps ya both.

 

 

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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Hope ?

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lsc76cat
Veteran Advisor

Re: Hope ?

Southern MN doesn't always take it on the chin for the corn belt.

2012 is a perfect example for our area. (Greater Mankato)

We got lucky with the weather and harvested a really nice crop while much of the corn belt burned up.

 

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Hope ?

IscCat, if I could bottle every year like 2012 I`d be the richest man in Babylon, but I know some around that were singin the blues if they had a gravel farm or if they got beared up too soon and contracted too much cheap $5.50 corn..Smiley Happy     But speaking of Mankato area, when we got that 13" of snow in 2013 (everytime I tell the story it gets deeper).   We went up to Mankato to bum around that day, well going up 22 as we got north of Wells, there wasn`t any snow ...WTH??? (I had kids in the car or it woulda been a different WT....    Smiley Happy   )  But yeah, there you go less than 50 miles north and you birds had a bigger planting window before the 2013 May/June monsoon season hit and out west to Spencer/Fairmont they missed it too and south down to Ames it wasn`t near the mess we had.    2013 was the best of times and the worst of times.....

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lsc76cat
Veteran Advisor

Re: Hope ?

Yep BA - there's got to be a line somewhere.

Just like this year - Mankato got a dusting of snow.

Waseca & Owatonna got alot more.

We're wet but nothing like ECIN, TIME and others are dealing with.

At least we can plant - will finish beans this weekend.

Yes - unlike the Dowager Countess I know what a weekend is.

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhfpBW-nUWk

 

 

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