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Veteran Advisor

How Low Can You Go?

Pretty low.

Rain makes grain. It's what's on the mind of trades, and, like has been said before on here, the traders don't owe you a profit.

It's sad, because the market takes things to the extreme, both ways.

Some on here considered me a perma bull, always looking for the market to go higher. Back on Valentine's Day of this year, I wrote, "It's all about heat units and moisture." I spoke about how I felt the Midwest was going to get plenty of both this year.

Since then, there have been opportunities to lock in a profit on ALL of the grains. For corn, the chart for Dec 16 looks almost identical to 2015. Corn got to around 4.40. Not a home run to be sure, but a profit. Beans had an opportunity for $12.00 in early June. Gone.

Personally, I see beans and corn with a ways to fall yet. Surely, beans under $9.00, and if the dollar stays strong, probably under $8.00. Corn is just flat out ugly. And those prices are not taking into account your local basis numbers.

Jen, how about something positive? Answer - there's always next year. It's a bit early for me to gaze into the crystal ball, but I see more of the same for next year. Sorry guys.

Jen
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10 Replies
Advisor

Re: How Low Can You Go?

Already overran my long term objective in W by a bit and even if I've had a count to 3.03 in CZ and and intermediate count in SX to around 8.90, ultimate 7.75, it still feels like a punch in the gut when it is happening.

 

My scientific chicken entrails weather outlook is similar to yours- don't see anything to make me expect the above average likelihood of drought next year.

 

Kinda thinking if there's a weather play coming up this fall or next spring it is too wet, not too dry.


 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: How Low Can You Go?

oh joy !!!!

 

the local elevators just DROPPED THE BASIS AN ADDITIONAL 25 TO 30 CENTS !!!!

 

one elevator in "the group" is now down to $1.45 basis

 

and they refuse to give me a quote from beans and milo for 2017

 

so how do you make plans......like we are told to do.....when you can't even get a bid

 

i wanted to get the price for seed........nope.......none available

 

chemical......didn't want to give me a price....i asked why not give me what you charged this year.......oh no......it might change  ((((cheaper ????)))

 

oh well.......think i'll go out boating.........alot of fields around here under water........more on the way......

 

1.8 inches last night

 

in a flood watch for the next 48 hours

 

nobody has field work done since the first of august.

 

we can't even get a sprayer in the fields

 

 

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Advisor

Re: How Low Can You Go?

I've said it a hundred times 4$ corn is break even money no profit and the beans under 10$ is an absolute joke and an insult to the business. These traders could give a @@@@ when it comes to the prices thiefs are clearing 100,000 on commission alone. My little farm of 1100 acres was - 40,000 last year and looking to be double that this year. Working two jobs just to make ends meet on the farm is killing me. Don't know if we need another war, or plane building crash or what but something has to wake these idiots up. It is so sad when the people that feed this country and the world are the first to get screwed every year. Penalized for better production numbers is the complete opposite of how the system was founded. Better luck next year haha for what a complete wipe out drought or what have you just to get a respectable price then we lose again with no product. Going out to rent a gun and going to have to borrow a bullet can't afford to buy either.!.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: How Low Can You Go?

Well maybe some hope for a surprise in the
Markets.

Seems the Russians have found a "very strong"
Signal comming from outer space.

Stay tuned
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Honored Advisor

Re: How Low Can You Go?

I'll say it again.  Don't be the last guy to have a farm sale.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: How Low Can You Go?

I will kindly disagree. No, there isn't "always" next year in the world of farming. Staring that one in the face as we speak.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: How Low Can You Go?

The only responce to a market like is do not buy inputs no fertilizer . chemicals , seed , file prevent plant wheat and call there bluff we are not guarnteed a profit but we have not harvested much yet sell enough to pay your property tax and call it a year ...good night all

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Senior Contributor

Re: How Low Can You Go?

i hear u.....ive been farming 4 decades and this is the worst crash ive experienced! not sure i will survive thisand not from debt load but at sub$4.00 wheat along with vomitoxin discounts of another $1.00 im done...so many storms this year it hurt crops a lot with pollination and drown out! hard to pay the "lower priced" fertilizer, chemicals and seed costs plus health ins!  Glad i didnt buy some of the expesive land but looking back i should have sold some! hindsight is great! Something has to give and im afraid it will be me!

whats sad is that all can be wiped out in one season altho it started a few years ago. 

The farmers biggest problem is ourselves. we are our own worst enemy because we stab each other in the back over land! And also catch a contagious disease called "keeping up with the Jones".

im afraid this coming winter will see many "older" farmers such as myself pulling the pin. im hoping that theres enough left to live on 

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Senior Advisor

Re: How Low Can You Go?

I think 2017 looks pretty grim.  Will there be a chance to produce grains at a profit?  Demand seems to be not too bad.  Supply is ample.  Carryo-over may be pretty burdonsome.  What I'll likely do for 2017 is put some futures sell orders on with the broker and give it time to come.  The last two years I've missed a big summer rally.  I got part of it this year but not as well as I might have.  Maybe next year I'll look for one and it won't happen, but I'd better keep an open mind.

 

 

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