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How Much Corn Is In The Bin?

I shipped my last corn last week.  The truckers are staying busy.  The buyer says she feels some farmers still have old crop in the bin.  

 

I hope Ray Jenkins visits and comments with his observations or opinion on how much grain is out there?

 

Couple of questions - what is happening to the spread?  The Basis?  With the prospect of an early, dry harvest, is there any pressure on remaining old crop stocks?  How much is left in the pipeline?

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8 Replies
jeremey.frost
Frequent Contributor

Re: How Much Corn Is In The Bin?

there really is no need for the remain old crop stocks.........except from those that are short basis............and it appears that all areas will have new crop sooner then later

 

i do think you should see new crop basis continue to firm up...........and things should be extra competitive for the bushels out there..........but the actual need or tight squeeze situation for old crop is past

 

once the crop is put in the bins however........things could get really interesting............the cheapest place to source corn could easly become the board........producers don't need to move anything

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: How Much Corn Is In The Bin?

Goin to see how valuable 60 test weight and clean 2011 corn is worth..............might just command a premium given the crap crop in a deficient area.........

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Re: How Much Corn Is In The Bin?

20,000+ old crop, basis .57 over dec.

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rayjenkins
Veteran Advisor

Re: How Much Corn Is In The Bin?

August has turned out to be a very interesting month.......we've had huge spot movement of corn from the farmer.....over 1.1 myn bushels of spots and especially heavy last week of August.....several reasons.....$8+ is always nice, we are seeing some new crop come at us right out of the field from folks not wanting to risk aflo issues once it goes in a bin, and we might be seeing a lot of folks wanting to get bin cleaned out "all the way" so they have zero corn inventory for crop insurance purposes as they expect to have crop insurance claim for the 2012 corn crop...

 

September is our big harvest month this year and we are being bombarded with calls to take LH September and October corn immediately.....this unusually heavy spot biz is making it difficult to handle any extra corn right now and provide reasonable unloading conditions....

 

what a year...

 

PS.....this is second year in a row we have seen a lot of old crop spot biz and selling in late August/early September....more than we expected.....but we'll take it

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: How Much Corn Is In The Bin?

Ray, Thanks for your posts! They are always well thought out with great infromation!    So.....the question remains......Has USDA's magical 300 million bushels already been moved out of the farmer's bins?  I would say yes,  but I am no expert.........................obviously.

Another question for Ray.......Do to the overlapping of 2011 and 2012 deliveries, is the USDA going to count the current bushels being delivered as 2011 crop or 2012 crop?   Or both???

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rayjenkins
Veteran Advisor

Re: How Much Corn Is In The Bin?

RT.......our super early 2012 corn harvest will do nothing to resolve the persistent debate on old crop/new crop supply......and it likely won't be solved until we have a later than normal harvest........but we sure cannot handle that in the next cropping cycle for 2013 unless demand for corn changes dramatically and we end up with a sizable carryout

 

when the govt was plugging in 14+ byn for a crop size, they had ballooned the feed/residual number to 5.4 byn, which tells me they were going to use some of the extra corn supply to "fix" some of this old/new transitional issues....oh well, best laid plans, eh?

 

Unless someone can show me how we are going to get corn for ethanol down closer to 4 byn in 12/13, I fear a huge train wreck coming next summer.......folks better be dusting off the playbook on feeding wheat to livestock, because that is what may be left in this country to use for a feedstock....

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Re: How Much Corn Is In The Bin?

Ray,

Do you see more on-farm storage as the reason for the unexpected movement of late stocks?

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rayjenkins
Veteran Advisor

Re: How Much Corn Is In The Bin?

Jim.....a combination of more on farm space and also our SE Iowa farmers have been slower to forward contract corn last couple of years due to the very erratic crop sizes in our part of the state.....it worked great for them this and last year to have old crop corn to sell in late August.....

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