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Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Advisor

How Much Is Ukraine Corn Worth?

If Ukraine was completely out of the corn market, what price effect would that amount of grain have on the world corn price?  That should help set some target prices for market planning.

I don't track the Ukraine regularly, so if someone has a handy likely export number projected before the troubles that would help.

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20 Replies
unlgrad
Senior Contributor

Re: How Much Is Ukraine Corn Worth?

UKRAINE at this point still has 3 MMT of corn to ship out from previous sales.  Even with a month of delays, should still be no problem unless it is 4 months of delays.   The funds should use this to run to $5.50 in May futures, and I think we get there before the report on March 31st.  There they might or might not include some of the 8 million missing acres from last year.  Unless we have 8 million acres of fallow more this year than last year.   All i know is that I had a record corn and bean yield last year and am sitting on a pile of corn, I sold 25% of it yesterday.  Even though I am looking for $5.50, I will sell another 25% when I get $5.  Cause I might be wrong. I farm in Burt & Thurston Counties, Northeast Nebraska.  It is hard to fathom the funds influence. But I am taking advantage of this rally.

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: How Much Is Ukraine Corn Worth?

Jim, Hobby's chart a few days ago had the Ukraine exporting 16% of the world's corn.   His chart was a pretty good one.

Not sure if that was a projected number or an actual number.........just messin' with ya.    Got to have a little fun today.   🙂

Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Advisor

Re: How Much Is Ukraine Corn Worth?

Well, given the troubles over there, it looks more like a projected number than an actual number, doesn't it?  Exactly why the word projected is important - because projected doesn't mean actual.   It means maybe.  And why projected or forecast is more accurate than predicted.

 

It is possible that if we get enough of a scare, the trade will overshoot the fundamental value so it is a good idea to have some price targets on the books.  I'm doing some step up selling, too, because the case for $5 corn is not very good if the Ukraine supply or it's equivalent demand is rationalized.

 

 

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farmerguy89
Advisor

Re: How Much Is Ukraine Corn Worth?

It's effect is more dramatic in the short term. If the grain can't be delivered then new buyers enter chasing less available corn for immediate needs. You can't stop feeding animals and you can't afford to shut down plants
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rayjenkins
Veteran Advisor

Re: How Much Is Ukraine Corn Worth?

bulk of corn left to ship is non-gmo destined for the EU

 

not easily replaceable in global markets

Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Advisor

Re: How Much Is Ukraine Corn Worth?

So, maybe that drives up the price of non-gmo corn but how much affect will it have on other supplies?  Maybe not as much as one would think if that demand market simply quits buying.  Makes me wonder if the market couldn't get a little toppy pretty quickly when everyone has thought everything through.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: How Much Is Ukraine Corn Worth?

Morning Grain Comments copy.jpg

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: How Much Is Ukraine Corn Worth?

Thanks Ray J

 

 

Kind of should encourage the E U to help them

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: How Much Is Ukraine Corn Worth?

Notice the reduction in our exports on that chart

 

That is in a time when we went from ten or less billion bu corn production to something close to 14 billion

 

Credit that to E and some of the other uses

Some of the difference would be the ddg,s

(Processed grain products that need an asterisk)

 

 One third more production, less exports, still no burdensome carry out, good job marketing and finding uses for it

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