How Much Is Ukraine Corn Worth?

[sw363535]

good catch hobby,

The distortion of historic data is the fact that we export so many more items that require the usage of corn, yet are not reflected in corn exports.  DDG's,  boxed Beef & pork, corn sweetners, etc etc etc........

[crophugger]

The line for U.S. in 13/14 do you think its a little light?

[Shaggy98]

Not to me hugger, looks to be nearly the same color as previous years. HA HA, just razzing you a little.

[sw363535]

If price stays under $5 then I agree it is a little light maybe very light.   

I thought the same and for that number to be final we will see higher prices to slow exports or ------- we, once again, began the year on assumptions that are not accurate.  Maybe high prices do not guarantee over production and loss of demand.

Just maybe the marketing world has changed.

I am wondering it there will be any shift to beans--------- if export demand really is demand for buyers who see that world production is not keeping up ----------- 

If we keep making production and demand changes without spending much on infrastructure to adjust supply logistics ------ what size does the pipeline need to maintain flow?  There is no pipeline and 10% of production can sure be in the wrong place.

Local example -- in sw ks we have spend a lot of tax dollars on ethanol plants and are still building.  It is a great place for the ddg's and especially the wdg's.  But little building of new track or highway improvements to supply the commodity movement in or out.  And the most recent plant is being built on a rail line that is in terrible condition, and barely in use.  If their supply is dependent on truck it will be a long haul ---building in a grain defecit area.

[rayjenkins]

Sounds like too many plants for available corn supply

Is that the scoular project, or a different one?

[sw363535]

The Garden City and Liberal grain plants are under the Conestoga name and doing well..... better tracks to begin with. Doing well --not sure who is involved in the backing.

The new one is the new cellulostic plant in Hugoton,  Abengoa ---- Spain involved.  approaching completion.

[sw363535]

Our grain storage location is just 21.2 miles west of the Arkalon/ Conestoga plant east of liberal.  A great addition to our feedlot and meat packing industry.  One small entrance off of a busy 54 highway that crosses the only rail track.  We need a secondary access road built and that rail line is way too busy for a single rail.  The adm unitrain terminal is just 25 miles sw of the plant at Hooker, Okla.

Kansas has been promising to finish making 54 a 4 lane highway for decades, the Texas, okla, and central kansas portions have been for several years.   In liberal Ks (pop. 18K @) they take 4 lane truck traffic and dump in into 5 uncoordinated stop lights with heavy town traffic, routed 10 feet from a grade school play yard protected by a chain link fence.  Had one child killed trying to cross with a bike last year.  Then it is two lane east to the plant.   Corn used to flow sw to the feeders.  Now it flows both ways with corn and ddg's heading sw from the plant.

[sw363535]

Ray it is not too many plants since the home for the ddgs is local and it is a destination point for grain when our irrig. supplies of grain get low.

We just changed the truck flow and increased handling ------ need some highway and rail improvements made badly.

The cellulostic issue is another ----less imaginable ------ senerio .  The logistics of handling that much bio mas by truck, at low cost, etc etc etc  -------- anxious to see it come on line .

[rayjenkins]

Is it true that dryland corn production has collapsed in SC/SW Kansas??

And that water restrictions are making it hard to grow irrigated corn??

where does corn  come from when your area is short a lot of corn production??

Not challenging---just trying to understand your part of the world

3-4years ago we drove through your area....on the way to Colorado.....Mrs. J called it my "let's look at every ethanol plant in that part of the world tour"!!

[sw363535]

Is it true that dryland corn production has collapsed in SC/SW Kansas??    Yes in western counties, not so sure SC(below) --- dry land production of most anything has been very limited since 2010--still running 60-35% below historic normal rainfall--,  We had a good wheat crop in 2010,  Dry land production has been near 0 since.  We did raise some milo this last year -- 12-18 bu/acre yields in a few areas--better east.  Arkalon is biding for more milo and testing the crop for productivity in the plant, it is our go to crop when water gets severly restricted.  And becomes a big crop when the rainfall turns to above normal.

 There is very little dry land corn attempted until the drought subsides.  And limited irrigation corn is difficult because the cost of irrigation is just too high.

And that water restrictions are making it hard to grow irrigated corn??  If your restriction refers to depletion, YES,  The areas with "250bu corn water" are getting smaller each year and the water is getting deeper.  There are three small geographic areas left that have strong water and they have been lowering pumps steadily through the drought. We have locations lifting from 300 ft.  The formation goes to 600-700 ft, but the cost per gallon will get much greater.  Arkalon Energy sits between two of those areas and the other one is on a line from Hugoton, Ks to just northeast of Guymon, Okla. (not that far)  The rest of the sw area is weaning off corn or limiting acres severly.

If your "restrictions" refers to regulation restrictions limiting corn,  It is restricting the repair, replacement, or improvement in management of the water resource. ------ example if you had an 1800 gallon well 30 yrs ago when permitted and it needs replaced.  You can only drill the replacement within 300 ft of the original and it can only be permitted to pump 1800 gpm regardless of the condition of the new well and regardless of how many acres it waters.  drilling two wells with a limit of 900 each is not permitted.  It is highly restrictive for maintenance of the resource.  But depletion is the big issue....

Irrigated Corn Production--- at this point and at these prices we are still pretty productive locally.  Costs are high and hard to trim.

where does corn  come from when your area is short a lot of corn production??    Northeast on rail from the cornbelt when needed --- irrigation so far, has prevented us from being extremely short on production.

Not challenging---just trying to understand your part of the world   Understood,  I can be missleading on shorter posts.  Blurts are open to a lot of interpretation, and long posts take time.

3-4years ago we drove through your area....on the way to Colorado.....Mrs. J called it my "let's look at every ethanol plant in that part of the world tour"!!    Ray that is very funny.  ------- For my dad it was "every used John Deere Lot" -----------my wife --- it is shoe stores.

For me ---- Finding a friend is always worth a little time.