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Marketman
Friend

How about this instead of another Market Facilitation pmt.

It would seem to me that if this tariff war lasts a lot longer than any of us want another government payment would just be a temporary fix.  Wouldn't it be a better idea to offer farmers an extra $100 an acre on top of prevented planting to not plant.  This way we would reduce our supply possibly as much as cutting it in half and in turn we would benefit from higher prices for years.  A repeat of the same program as last year would require farmers to plant soybeans to get the subsidy while it actually just keeps our supply at historic high levels and we have the same low prices next year. I realize we haven't reached the dates yet to file prevented plant but when it gets here it would benefit all if the government would encourage those folks to not plant.  Those that do have crops will get a higher price and those that can't get in the fields will get some extra help by way of the subsidy. Thoughts?

10 Replies
Contributor

Re: How about this instead of another Market Facilitation pmt.

Think it depends on if you blame "low" prices on too much supply or a lack of demand.

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Honored Advisor

Re: How about this instead of another Market Facilitation pmt.

I can`t see anything wrong with it, it sort of capitalizes on low prices and bad planting weather.   A extra $100 on top of insurance money is like if you dropped a quarter in the toilet, it isn`t worth picking it up, but if someone dropped another quarter in, 50 cents might be worth it   Smiley Happy

 

Just rough figuring say 40 million acres of Corn and Beans might be candidates for the $100 of Trump money, that`d be $4 billion, which is a drop in the bucket for all this Walmart junk tariff revenue coming in.  There maybe won`t be another better timing opportunity to do it right now asap, to send a salvo across the Chinese bow.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: How about this instead of another Market Facilitation pmt.

Just make it $300/acre and I just won't plant, won't claim PP, and no other FSA program payment for the year.  Just a goose-egg on planted acres for the year.  P&K will still be there next year.  Landlord's happy, I'm happy, planted acreage reduced, etc.

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Senior Contributor

Re: How about this instead of another Market Facilitation pmt.

The difference between the 2018 soybean crop and the 2017 crop was 137 million bushel. The WAOB has the carryout at 970 million bushel.  If the Chinese cancel their undelivered bushels the carryout will be 1200 million.  It's pretty hard to explain how an extra 137 million bushel of production can magically become an extra 1000 million bushel.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Just get your corn planted.

If you borrow the planting progress term from Westcott & Jenison's "Weather-affected Yield Model"  which is based on mid-May planting progress for  8 corn states, it predicts (assuming the remainder of the season is average) a  minus 15 bushel per A yield.  If all 93 million acres gets planted that puts production at 13.3 billion bushel.

  I'm not saying that what will happen, I'm just saying that's what the numbers point to.  If that comes to pass, corn will be worth a lot more come this fall.  My advice is, Get your corn planted and maybe switch some soybean ground to corn, even with a lower yield you should be able to make some money.  And if we all trim some soybean acres, the 1200 million carryout will take care of itself.

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briancyndi
Senior Reader

Re: How about this instead of another Market Facilitation pmt.

Plus it would be good for the soil to set for a season!

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Senior Contributor

Re:Really,

I grow soybeans, black beans, buckwheat or red clover in rotation with corn.  By far the soil following soybeans has the best tilth and soil improvement of all the rotation crops.   Even a two ft tall crop of red clover plowdown isn't as good as soybean ground.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Re:Really,

http://www.israeltoday.co.il/NewsItem/tabid/178/nid/25367/Default.aspx   

 

 

While the weekly Shabbat (Sabbath) is a day of rest for man, the shmita is to be a year of rest for the land every seventh year. It is commanded in Exodus 23:10–11, which reads:

You may plant your land for six years and gather its crops. But during the seventh year, you must leave it alone and withdraw from it. The needy among you will then be able to eat just as you do, and whatever is left over can be eaten by wild animals. This also applies to your vineyard and your olive grove.

It is estimated that some 5,000 Israeli farmers obey the above commandment, and the state sets aside around USD $28.5 million to support them during a year without crops to sell.

The largest and oldest Israeli environmental organization, the Jewish National Fund, also strictly adheres to the shmita, and will not prepare any land for new forestation efforts during the fallow year.    

 

 

 

If we followed the Bible, we wouldn`t graze cornstalks in the fall, those on welfare would be permitted to pickup the unharvested yield loss, then they wouldn`t have to be on the public dole.   Something tells me, they would glean the most behind a Case IH combine....Oh snap!   I`m sorry   Smiley Very Happy

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Honored Advisor

Re: Re:Really,

From the original post and paying farmers to not plant............while seemingly a good idea, it would wreak havoc with the government's affordable food supply.  The first thing that would happen is that food prices would rise. The second thing that would happen is that ethanol would get the blame.........again.    

 

BA, as far as your comment about  a Case/Ihc combine,  at least guys running those combines would be doing their best to feed the hungry.  Smiley Wink

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