How bad is the drought in Argentina?

[marketeye]

After putting $1.00 on the soybean market, due mainly to the drought in Argentina, investors are trying to figure out if the weather-driven rally has further upside?

How bad are things for farmers in Argentina? Well, the cows have been turned out, according to the guy that I follow on Twitter.

What say you? Do you think the market has more upside, here, or will the China/U.S. tariff trade row cap gains?

Mike

[Hobbyfarmer]

I've had cattle get a fence down and get out too.

Those cattle look like they are steaming from running, all bunched up, not like they were just let out.

More like they were just gathered up from being all over where they didn't belong.

[Hobbyfarmer]

Yes those beans look haggard

"

The Grain Exchange is now rating the soybean crop in general as 45.3% very poor, 30.7% poor, 21.1% fair, 2.6% good, and .3% excellent. The early planted soybeans are rated 72% poor to very poor, whereas the later planted soybeans are rated 85% poor to very poor. The earlier planted soybeans had relatively good weather last September and October, but the later planted soybeans have endured adverse weather ever since they were planted.

The soybeans in general are 35% filling pods and 5% mature, so the next few weeks will be critical for determining the final soybean yield. The soil moisture for the soybeans is rated 52.9% very short, 34.1% short, 12% favorable, 0.8% optimum, and 0.2% wet."

[illinifarmer]

I would say their in trouble for sure, However for the worlds largest soybean exporter SA should be far more then 1.00$ correction. Just in world stock supply I would say about a 3$ correction would be more accurate.

[Hobbyfarmer]

Reports of Brazil's bean crop getting bigger. Paraguay and Uruguay crops are abundant too.

Sold beans about noon for $10.24 cash.

[sw363535]

Well the opposite side of the market will have a time at bat.... before another run up in the next inning.

Those beans look trampled by something.... but IMO the market is usually overly optimistic and the producers are usually pessimistic.  

Seems like most of the information about argentina drought is coming from the optimistic side..... so it could be that bad.

It is kind of late south...... and the too wet brazil folks along with the too dry areas will definitely put a floor on the market for a while...

It looks like spring here is setting up the same way.

[sw363535]

This quote from FCStone...... headlines their report......

"Wheat ratings holding after winter declines; grain prices consolidating pre-USDA"

That statement should be followed by a "please"   or "we hope"  statement......   

Overly optimistic..... and very misleading

[sw363535]

Those beans are still green........ 

[elcheapo]

I think the story being missed is the drought
In the u.s.
When you have extreme fire warning...and we
Thought we had two big fires this
Morning that turn out to be blowing dust
We are in serious trouble.

[sw363535]

cheapo lets see if usda can change this in one report..   It will take a lot more than just a bad report.

Notice how significant todays 7 cents down is....  Argentina and US both having problems does figure on the world viewpoint...

But they want to ignore it so far...... and I agree with you...... It appears the US drought is a bigger problem..... maybe that is why they are talking about argentina.... they probably expect that one to get better first.