All we need is a program to control the weather so we get exactly our APH each year so supply and demand stay exactly in balance at the $12 market clearing price! Failing that, commodity markets will continue to be extremely sensitive to supply/demand imbalances, with even small imbalances producing large price swings. Commodity demand is fairly inelastic. For example, I use 5 gals diesel to operate my farm, including hauling. It's my system and it works well for me. It doesn't matter if it's $2 or $10/gallon, I'm going to need/use 5 gallons per acre.
Normally, farmers would respond to the $16 bean price signal to produce more since it should be (very) profitable at that level. But fertilizer price and availability are why it might be different this year.
