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ray h.
Senior Contributor

How many acres

    would you guys have to fallow to get their attention!

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13 Replies
elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: How many acres

Wouldn't make a difference.

Why does some ninny in Chicago know more
About the cost, uses, etc of my crop and
Tell me what it's worth....

And nobody thinks there is a problem
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WCMO
Senior Advisor

Re: How many acres

with 100% participation, it would probably only need to be around 2%-3%, but 100% participation would never happen.

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ray h.
Senior Contributor

Re: How many acres

    Cheapo,absolutly correct about a cbot ninnie.They know nothing about cost,or care.As long as there is an up and down movement,they don't care.Easyer to make a profit of a $3.00 risk than a$6.00 risk.Although we do have the old adageof the higher it goe's,the lower it goe's and vice versa!

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ray h.
Senior Contributor

Re: How many acres

 2-3% seams like a low enough percentage that mother nature stands a good chance of reversal soon!

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: How many acres

The "fallow" may come from the yield side of production in 2016.   If we look at a 169 trend yield on 80 million acres, chipping away from the yield would have twice the effect as it would from acres. 

 

I hear seed sales are slow, dealers that usually take orders for granted are quietly admitting they haven`t sold half their normal seed amount and there are plenty "hot numbers" left.  farmers have apparently let alot of these "big discounts" slip past them.

 

If the hot smart stack numbers aren`t planted and fertilizer is skimped, perhaps that is where we may see a self imposed "fallow' in 2016.   Of course i thought that would`ve happened in 2015 too, which it didn`t, but maybe this time the banker has pulled away the reins.

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: How many acres

BA, If the bankers now have the reins,  the buggy is sure to crash.   Smiley Wink

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: How many acres

Roarin`, farmers have complained that their "banker is their marketer" (forcing them to forward sell) just wait what they will say when their banker is also wants to be their agronomist.

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OKdon
Senior Contributor

Re: Your banker has a business to run

as do you. That is why you buy insurance to limit your risk. He is making business decisions to limit his risk. Or perhaps limiting the bank's risk would be more appropriate.

 

 

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Your banker has a business to run

I agree Don, that the banker`s first loyalty is to the bank and depositors.  What does it say though about a risk in a loan where the banker has to have stipulations of the marketing of the crop and limits on the spending on the inputs.  The farmer should either have control with his or her management ability or the loan is too risky to begin with.  The banker`s expertise in marketing and agronomy is only enough to assess that of the farmer that`s asking for the loan.