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Honored Advisor
Posts: 5,301
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

How many how soon?

Just who of us will not be here as farmers/ growers by next planting season?

 

Two years ago some were planning on paying too high of rent and a few other non financially viable things.

 

How's that working out?  Their logic was to keep control of the land. Intentionally lose equity, what a business plan, wonder if their banker knew.

 

The markets can stay irrational longer than most with that plan can stay solvent.

 

The 200 bu club farm average is going to have a lot less members this year. 

 

Aph or even crop insurance yields are not gonna keep many in the game with the afore mentioned game plan. 

 

How much less than five year old equipment is headed back to the dealership?

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 2,876
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: How many how soon?

Exporting our way to prosperity seems to have a quenched appetite from the robust environment previously witnessed --- @ 1 % - 2% of exports destined for malnourished population - most interesting ---

 

 

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 2,892
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
0

Re: How many how soon?

Several years ago I went to some meeting and
They said agriculture changed..they showed
Graphs of demand from china, India and other
Going up and up, due to their increased income,
There was going to more ethanol use.
The charts even converged, and they were
Using USDA trend line yeilds.
They said prices wouldn't go down...they asked
If you go to town do you see the stores marking
Things down ?

I have the stuff, and the math holds

What is wrong ? Why is "the market" refusing
To pay fair market value ?

I was told the market is always right, and the market
Job is price discovery.

Why they do not understand the price is below
Cost of production, I don't know.

It is not working as invisioned. Many tell me the
Market is supposed to work you add cop plus profit, and that should equal price

Today they try to bid as low as they can, but "the market" has no interest in price, they care about
Price movement. The idea of supply and demand
Is "something of the past", yet that is what we are
Preached.
A while back I was exposed to a new marketing
Class, no talk about supply and demand, crop
Conditions. It was a computer running a program
Looking at volume, price movement, other markets
And "news factors"...the results....good...
They fellow said you do not trade every day,
The computer is looking for trends. They
Tell you to select profit level so the computer
Knows when to say no
Or yes.

I'm not so sure if our market people are doing us
A disservice by using the "old" system.

FYI..this software is what is used by nyse and
Nasdac

Amazing all the trade uses these programs, yet
Those markets do not have the factors we do.
Honored Advisor
Posts: 15,051
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: How many how soon?

Some will go broke, but most will be bailed out with RA insurance and some still have some equity to burn by restructuring debt turn 5yr notes into 10yr notes and such for more "cashflow". 

 

But I would sure think after 3yrs it would start sinking in that this isn`t going to be a "V-bottom", I hope I`m wrong but with seed genetics out-stripping demand, we may never see $5 cash corn again, ever.   Any profit will have to come from negotiating inputs and hitting small "single base hits" on marketing. 

 

Probably, a rally of $5 would only come from a worldwide production issue and be short lived.  one day our macro domestic economic problems will come home to roost and inflating our way out will be the last option...but, I`m tired of holding my breath for the inflation train, it could be another 10 years. 

 

If we raise "another" bumper crop in 2018, there`ll be quiting and retiring, but volume seekers will absorb them.  How those that figured how to spend themselves rich, I don`t know how they do it, they are immune to the laws of gravity.  But fake it, `til you make it. 

 

JMO