How much corn is at risk of yield loss due to fall freeze? (pic)

[jeffclimatecorp]

I thought the group might be interested in our latest analysis which deals with fall freeze risk for corn. Building off of our corn Crop Progress analyses, we have now layered in information about GDDs to maturity, season to date weather and simulations of weather for the remainder of the season to calculate the risk that corn will be damaged by freeze before it makes full maturity and full yield potential.

As seen in the image, large areas of northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin are facing probabilities of freeze damage exceeding 90% The full write up of the analysis can be found on our research blog at http://insights.climate.com

Please feel free to contact me with any questions.

[hanktbd]

Nice visual. Any history on how accurate it is?

[c-x-1]

looks like a significant quantity, Jeff...didn't some of the WI area have a bit of frost already?

[jeffclimatecorp]

I did see some reports of them having a bit of frost. But don't think they have had a hard freeze yet. This analysis is looking at the risk of them seeing a 28 degree reading before the crop advances to black layer.  The analysis also doesn't account for corn that may have finished prematurely due to extreme drought stress. The analysis assumes corn is still growing and tracking towards a full season GDD requirement.

[buckfarmer]

I'm not at all familiar with that part of the country. But why does it stop on the north end of the northern states.

[jeffclimatecorp]

We didn't analyze counties with minimal corn production. They don't grow much corn in northern Michigan, Northern Wisconsin or Northern Minnesota.

[farmerguy89]

All of Ontario, even the areas that are in line w the I states

[dairyfarmmn]

Jeff, I'm just shaking my head here looking at this. I think your computer needs to be recalibrated. I'm in SE MN and I am now at 2080 GDD's as of today on my corn. My longest corn needs 2300 GDD's to black layer and the shortest needs about 2200 according to the spec sheets. Looking at the 15 day forecast I see nothing that says freeze. And I believe ECI posted a while back a piece from Purdue that says corn planted late needs less GDD's than if it had been planted earlier..... it compensates for shorter growing season. In my opinion this crop is where it should be for this time of the year.

So out of curiosity what day corn are you using, or how many GDD's are you using to get the corn to black layer.

[farmerguy89]

USDA crop progress shows maturity as
Still being behind

[jeffclimatecorp]

Dairyfarmmn, thanks for the feedback based on your in field experience. Let me know what county you are in and I can look at a few more specifics of what our model is showing in that area.