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Honored Advisor
Posts: 18,054
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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How much price downfall due to weatheror tariffs?

See, I heard a "farmer" on NPR boo-hooing that the $1.50 bean payment "isn`t enough!  Smiley SadSmiley SadSmiley Sad"   .   Well, with or without the trade debacle corn and beans would`ve gone down.   On social media all the pictures of 24x90 ears of corn and bean stalks with 200 five bean pods on the pickup tailgate have traders comfortable with supply.  Beans went from $10 to $8.50 so, $1.50 I would say maybe 50% of it was because of trade and 50% because of "good weather"?  

 

Seems to me that NPR "farmer" is trying to take advantage of weather causing the market to go down and blaming it 100% on trade.  If NPR ever gets anyone on with brains to explain that, it might be a good thing or else it`ll look like we`re all crooks one day.  

 

That`s another thing with the proposed payment, EWG will work 3 shifts getting the individual farmer payment amounts out and if there isn`t payment limits, you`ll see headlines in the morning paper of some farmers maxing out their FSA amount.   10,000 acres X 50bpa X $1.50 =$750,000 payment maybe +$1 million in cases.  Sad fact is, even with the big payments, it might on keep the BTO a step ahead of the sheriff one more year.

Senior Contributor
Posts: 1,033
Registered: ‎11-30-2014
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Re: The lows are in and Past,

There's relatively high use and low carry on corn now.

 

just watch Wheat....that's the party that leads the parade higher.

 

as far as Donald and some chinamen...hell its all huff and bluff with a couple crooked goats charging a maybe 20 to 45% sales tax LOL.

 

corn say $4+ at fall harvest then on to the 4.46 trade range.

 

beans say 9 to $10 this fall then on to 14 to $15 as SA fails the El Niño crop.

 

bullish here?  Hardly.... Just realistic probably.

Veteran Reader
Posts: 1
Registered: ‎12-27-2017
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Re: How much price downfall due to weatheror tariffs?

I don't watch CNN or Fox News because they are too bias in their perspective.   I want data not bias agendas ... if we are subscribing to Successful Farming then we all want farmers to do well.   

 

Give us your data, not your political agenda please.   

Senior Contributor
Posts: 397
Registered: ‎01-12-2012
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Re: How much price downfall due to weatheror tariffs?

So if we are so bad for taking a little money know my farm can use it then why is it okay for these urban areas to take government money for ther bike trails street lights fire department etc etc. 

Senior Advisor
Posts: 1,260
Registered: ‎05-20-2010

Re: How much price downfall due to weatheror tariffs?

Well, the data shows that exports have not declined much, and frankly the crop ratings are pretty high. The market topped exactly when it was supposed too and declined pretty close to when it would normally do so, and by a pretty normal amount. So, honestly, there isn't much of a tariff decline in price yet. The tariff decline in price does not HAPPEN NOW. It happens in 2020 or 2022 when the 30 mil acres china plants in SA is harvested. Happy to take the money now, but the downside is not now....jmo....(And I am NOT a global trade economist, just a dirt farmer with a bit of experience in life)

Honored Advisor
Posts: 8,931
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: How much price downfall due to weatheror tariffs?

Janiene——- don’t we all feel the same.
We would all like real data instead of the beltway fantasy guess. Or the spec promotion. Both generate spec trading and tell us nothing real.
Honored Advisor
Posts: 18,054
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: How much price downfall due to weatheror tariffs?

I don`t watch Fox or CNN either, they`re both too damned liberal and I`m too hardup to afford a satellite dish.   I watch ABC News and move the rabbit ears to watch CBS News and run it through my filter Smiley Happy

 

But raising food isn`t what brought China "to power", what got them to the second largest economy in the world was stealing & copying and manufacturing cheap crap and pawning it off on this country.  If they want to clear another 30 million acres in Brazil and buy some Mahindra tractors and hire some local yahoos to plant beans down there, we`ll see how that goes. 

 

Seems to me if something isn`t in your wheelhouse (industrial sized farming) and you plunge into it out of spite, forgoing that 90% of the time you can buy food cheaper than you can grow it, could be a disaster for them. 

 

Not to mention in all of this, they are ticking off THEIR biggest customer Uncle Sap, who brung `em to the dance in the first place.  Perhaps in 2020 a president of another party will be elected and go around the world on his or her kneepads begging to go back to being the world`s doormat again?  Dunno, stay tuned.  

 

But getting back to the original topic, looking back hindsight 20/20 the drop in beans of $10 to $8 wasn`t all due to tariff talk, beans drop in June due to they got planted on time and in June look pretty.  Even Soy Roy`s "always" rules is "sell by May and go away", right?   Crop ratings are fantastic this year (not in my neighborhood, but seems everywhere else).   SO IMO it`s 50/50 of between weather and tariff phobia.

Advisor
Posts: 1,142
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: How much price downfall due to weatheror tariffs?

No it affects us more in 2025-2027