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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

I Took A Look

At what’s going on with the drought situation out west, and how it could impact the Midwest this summer.   I probably need to do some more work on what I saw, but my initial thoughts give me real concerns, about what this summer could bring.

Here in Cannon Falls, we have very little snow.   With yesterdays 5 inches, we maybe have 7 inches on the ground - 1 day of warm weather (read 40 plus) would’ve taken what snow we had to nothing.   The number of snowmobiles past my place this year, I can count on one hand.   Normally, it’s enough to wish the machines didn’t exist. 

I’ve said in the past, that I look at the 4 corners area, and then the area at the convergence of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles.   The worst droughts in US history started in those areas, and spread NE.

From what I see right now, the Midwest could be really, really dry this year.   If you remember, Hobby asked me last year to report on what I saw - and I said it would be dry.  But, this year is worse.   On top of that, we are a year closer to Solar Maximus, which will bring more heat to the entire Earth.   It’s going to be hot - it’s going to be dry.   We’ve had it hot and dry before.   This though, could be worse.

Jen

 

10 Replies
Wind
Advisor

Re: I Took A Look

Thank-you Jen for you thoughts on the weather, one of your gifts was to discern the weather.  We ended the year around 7" below normal here in central Iowa.  Ended this last snow event with around 7".  Total   for the season 8".  My relatives in Western KS are very dry with some recent strong wind events too.

Keep us posted.

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: I Took A Look

what a coincidence you're here.

Just was reading about current Pacific water temps and the forecast for them is to continue the drought till at least end of March then return neutral.

We got a moisture event here the last 24 hrs that would have really helped wheat country.

Third inch of drizzle followed by five or six inches of wet snow.

Multitude of birds at the feeders this am.

Glad I sold the calves last Wed, haven't missed cleaning out the feed bunks this morning...

Below zero weather in the local forecast next week.

I appreciate your weather reports.

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: I Took A Look

Solar Cycle Progression | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center

Ooops, hadn't looked for a couple months.

Sunspots are perking up, but not to the degree of O-N 2011 or S-O 1987.

Maybe the Chinese know what they're doing- stocking up and all.

A major MW drought under the current setup of the magnitude of those I mentioned would be pretty disruptive for many years.

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: I Took A Look

Finally sound good news!  Elwynn Taylor has been saying foe years that 2022 was the year to watch.  Well, here we are.  The movie Soylent Green also took place in the year 2022 BTW.

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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: I Took A Look

Yes - that is the reason that when I brought up  the drought monitor, I was like “oh boy”.    

When I went out to LA 6 weeks or so ago, on the way back, I noticed a couple of forest fires still burning out west.   Their plumes of smoke were pretty visible from 34,000 feet.   Not too much has been said about the fires, other than the fire that consumed 1000+ buildings just recently.    I’m really concerned with what I’m seeing for those people out west.   A bad fire season last year, could be replaced with an even worse one this year.

I’d much rather be on here saying, “Guys, plant those long day hybrids and don’t worry about water - we’re good!”   Long day hybrids - yes.   Maybe the new corn hybrids that survive on less water, would be a good investment for most of the Midwest.   Any hope anywhere?   Northern tier - Montana, ND, maybe some of NW Minnesota might escape the worst of it.   Maybe.   

Buying calls may not be such a stupid idea.   

Get the crops in early - not in the mud, but early. 

Jen

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: I Took A Look

Yes, $6 corn is an abomination and conspiracy foisted upon Real Americans! 

There's the reality of marketing your way around whatever will be, short, intermediate and long term.

But I'm not sure outright greed is so good- a really bad one could shift the game for a long time.

It'll be what it will.

Odds still favor a trend sort of outcome- probably just to a lesser extent than usual.

Although on the bright side, might accelerate the trend toward vegaritanism and renewable energy.

You following me?

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: I Took A Look

FWIW, a very long drought broke in CA in the winter of '86-'87.

Although '87 was a very close run thing- a lot like last year- amazing yields out of early planting and a timely rains.

As always- I'll caution that analogs are never perfect and probably even provide less guidance with a rapidly warming- and wetter- US.

Nothing to conclude from this here. Just musings.

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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: I Took A Look

Yes - my 7 years in Oklahoma showed me what crops can do in the heat and dryness.   There was something there, but not what is “normal”.   So it’s not like there will be nothing.   But it’s not going to be the bin busters we had a few years ago.

Jen

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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: I Took A Look

I remember getting off of work one night at 11 pm, walking out to my car, and it was still like 107 degrees outside.   I was like - this just isn’t right!    I told my supervisors that we deserved hazard pay for even being down there.   That was two years before an F-4 took out the entire RV park where I was staying - and much of the surrounding area.   I had left just a couple of weeks before that to come back home - my 3 month stint was completed.   I’m glad I missed that one.   And glad I’m retired to the  relative peace (weather wise) of Minnesota.

Jen

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