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farmer46
Senior Contributor

I am confused

I understood, when the Adults came back from vacation, the market would trade reality.  What am I missing?  No rain and heat and markets keep going lower.   I am long corn, so I am biased.

 

As to livestock endusers. Watch as the crops get less expensive to purchase, your prices drop.  My best profits were when corn and beans cost the most.  Of course, I raised all my feed needs.

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11 Replies
sd/pa
Frequent Contributor

Re: I am confused

We were in a garden spot in SD. I imagine the top end corn has lost 20 bu potential yield in the last two weeks. The bottom end corn has lost 40-50 bu yield per acre. Beans are going backwards everyday and bean yields will be cut 30-40% if we stay hot and dry for the next week. I don't understand either why the market thinks losing yield daily is bearish news. I suppose its the funds doing what they will simply because they can. I guess I have to celebrate along with the market gurus that the southern corn belt and delta/southeast, which all knew all along got good rain, have good yields.

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hardnox604008
Advisor

Re: I am confused

Tough time of year to sustain a rally.

 

Market doesn't have to worry about whether there will be a crop, just has to worry about whether it will be enough. It can do that later.

 

Not that I spend a lot of time worrying for the elevators but for their sake hope it doesn't come up short enough that the market inverts again.

 

Although compared to the old days the market did treat them well if they were on the right side of the basis- but that is a tougher call than just hedging the carry. That's more like the "easy" choices that farmers have to make.

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cornhead64
Frequent Contributor

Re: I am confused

Just think of how low those meat prices are going to be in the store !!!!

 

I can't wait.

 

corny

 

 

 

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cornhead64
Frequent Contributor

Re: I am confused

PS - Seems prices never do come down.

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BF2012
Advisor

Re: I am confused

just look at those silly cherry picked yield results coming in in another thread....that is why no one is trading reality...they would rather focus on fantasy.

Sillinoisfarmer
Frequent Contributor

Re: I am confused

Db there is nothing to be confused about! You are old enough by now to know that those young 20 something's know more about farming than you have learned in your entire farming career! USDA experts sitting 2000 miles away behind their computer screens know how much you will grow and harvest this year! Stop complaining about late planting, saturated fields, N loss, cool summer days, flash drought they know more about your crops than you do. End users and elevators don't need your stinking bushels they have plenty but to make you feel better they offered you an inverted basis most of this year. Remember the Chicago gang they don't need your physical bushels, they grow paper bushels; anyway why on earth would they care if the real thing is out there or not? Agriculture web sites and magazines will tell you how to grow a magical crop from pixie wings and fairy dust, what if their wrong about the size of the corn crop it only hurts real farmers, or it producers? Besides who needs the number one state of Iowa or number two Illinois to raise a large corn crop we have all these new and exotic corn states that will blaze a trail to higher yields. Lest we forget our esteemed academic professors who will tell you how to grow corn the correct way, never mind that most of them would not know how to harness the horses or crank the super C up to grow a crop completely by themselves. Lastly let us not forget our wonderful corn genetics suppliers that if you will pop for 350.00 seed corn it will all turn out okay, in fact if you will just open the bag the stuff will almost plant itself and grow on concrete. By the way they can always sell it for a steep discount to your friendly foreign country producers so they will be able to afford it to shipped to a friendly river terminal near you! With this mighty of array of people being right, and us farmers, no producers, no growers, oh whatever the heck we are, simply wrong. Just keep telling yourself that you must be wrong and they are always right, and by the way which pill do you want red or blue?

Sarcasm off now.
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BF2012
Advisor

Re: I am confused

lmao.....Good Rant....could have used some W T F's and other assorted profanity to really get the point across.   lol    Went to Effingham to pick up my semi this evening, and the guy running the counter started talking about crops.  He isn't a farmer, just a local guy from one of the small towns around.   He made an interesting observation and asked the following question..

 

"There are some really weird looking fields of corn and soybeans out there.  I've never seen corn look like that.   What up with that? 

 

Duh.

 

 

 

Something is seriously wrong out there....and even a guy behind a parts counter can see it.    

 

Oh Yeah....  We're totaly screwed.    If you have to sell this fall and lack storage.....Your're really screwed.    I'm hopping to hang on till next planting season...until it's over.    Reality is creeping up on us like a bad fitting pair of underwear.   That'll mean selling for $ 3.00 bu.   Should solve the tax problem though.

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c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: I am confused

BF, just know that some non-farmers have a clue.....i'm learning fast........

when you've got 72% of Corn planted later, much of which endured water stress through V6 b/c of 1st map....and therefore had no need for a normal root system (competent, that is) and then experienced 2nd map--it's not rocket science. my experience and from listening to you guys is the mkt eventually --by laws of nature--will HAVE TO TELL THE TRUTH.

suprises are lurking for the masses..................c-x-1

 

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c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: I am confused

oh yeah,

and your parts counter guy - that's noteworthy, my friend!

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