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Senior Advisor

I am tired of it

I see wheat down 14. News story out of record
Yeilds....."people have never seen yeilds like this"
The writer was located in Boston ma......
Also tells of 100 bu yeilds.

If someone does business with PRIDE grain...they
Need to be talked to as how to talk to media.

I take offense when I'm trying to get done and
The yeilds are not that good....that it is just

I am further shocked that usda RAISED HRWW acres

When all agreed that acres are down.

I am starting to question if I should start the
Combine today.

With prices down....and the TRUE big story, why
Doesn't anyone write a story..
Correction, news article, investigate why we have
Record high basis (yes even successful farming has not)

It seems the media..... including the AG media
Do not know a real story if it came up and
Bite them on the #$%.

I'm sorry but a company comming out with
A new product is called advertising....and how
This and that group got together....that is
What we here call the community page.

Does news really matter anymore ?

It is all perception

And at cme.....
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3 Replies

As long as we're being depressed

might as well get it all out of the way.


FAS won't issue new world S and D's until 7/12 but I was plugging the possible impacts into the old ones based on IGC's increase of the world wheat crop by 7mmt and the possible outcome of 94M US corn acres and a 75% GE rating. I'm out of reach of where anybody can hit me but I was using a 170 yield based on that, which most certainly may not happen, but I'm just basing it on the numbers, whether I entirely believe them or not.


In that scenario it is pretty easy to get a total world wheat/coarse grain carryout as a percentage of stocks/use back to pre-ethanol levels, and given OK world weather next year probably room to rebuild oilseed stocks without denting grain a lot.


Weather can moot all that (recent rally kicked off my a late turn for the worse in SA) and all.


But anyway, my only real conclusion is that if those things come to pass along with an attendant explosion of countercyclical costs, there will probably be a movement to revisit the 2014 Farm Bill before the 2021 term.


For anybody who is really at risk here, or I guess anybody who is just peeved at a reduction of income as well, the thing that would worry me is what is almost certain to be accelerating political dysfunction in Washington.


FWIW, I'd like to see a proposal to add a stronger countercyclical component to ethanol. But that's tricky and particularly so (as per my comments about politics) when we have a substantial bloc that wants to eliminate the EPA, etc. There's a heightened possibility that anything would just jammed up in al the mess.*


Or could be same 'ol, like 2014, when the lobbyists and staffers get together in a dark room somewhere, write a bill and then slip it out just long enough to get it rubber stamped. But I'm thinking the odds of that become less.


* Remember, by their nature all farm programs fail- be it support Prices, FOR, setaside, LDP etc. Ethanol is failing now. But we've tended to come up with the next patch, generally soon enough that the majority don't go broke.

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Re: As long as we're being depressed

Again, I'm safely tucked away where nobody can hit me.


Even though I think what I say is fairly objective, any criticism of More Ethanol Forever tends to draw intense ire.


But the problem of adding anything to ethanol targets was that in order to expand you needed to also create more elasticity on the downside should the crop turn out bad. Because we didn't have enough stocks to ensure we could meet that level if it was hard and fast.


Not only was the 10%ish level a line in the sand that the industry would always defend but it the EPA blend number so you'd have to go back and rework that in some way. And probably not something the industry wants to risk.


If carryout stocks approach 2.5bb I think there would then be enough room to revisit it and not surrender the 10% blend line.


Although I'd prefer any expansion be flexible and market based, which is tough to get much demand traction on with sub-$50 oil. On a BTU basis, ETOH is currently about 170% the price of gasoline.


That may not be the case if and when the conversation takes place.

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Honored Advisor

Re: As long as we're being depressed



This is a false statement....


 Remember, by their nature all farm programs fail- be it support Prices, FOR, setaside, LDP etc. Ethanol is failing now. But we've tended to come up with the next patch, generally soon enough that the majority don't go broke.


It is not supported by history....  The vast majority over the last 50 years have gone broke....

All the patches do is keep peace and encourage the survivors to keep producing.

This is a majority Looses game and always has been...



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