might as well get it all out of the way.
FAS won't issue new world S and D's until 7/12 but I was plugging the possible impacts into the old ones based on IGC's increase of the world wheat crop by 7mmt and the possible outcome of 94M US corn acres and a 75% GE rating. I'm out of reach of where anybody can hit me but I was using a 170 yield based on that, which most certainly may not happen, but I'm just basing it on the numbers, whether I entirely believe them or not.
In that scenario it is pretty easy to get a total world wheat/coarse grain carryout as a percentage of stocks/use back to pre-ethanol levels, and given OK world weather next year probably room to rebuild oilseed stocks without denting grain a lot.
Weather can moot all that (recent rally kicked off my a late turn for the worse in SA) and all.
But anyway, my only real conclusion is that if those things come to pass along with an attendant explosion of countercyclical costs, there will probably be a movement to revisit the 2014 Farm Bill before the 2021 term.
For anybody who is really at risk here, or I guess anybody who is just peeved at a reduction of income as well, the thing that would worry me is what is almost certain to be accelerating political dysfunction in Washington.
FWIW, I'd like to see a proposal to add a stronger countercyclical component to ethanol. But that's tricky and particularly so (as per my comments about politics) when we have a substantial bloc that wants to eliminate the EPA, etc. There's a heightened possibility that anything would just jammed up in al the mess.*
Or could be same 'ol, like 2014, when the lobbyists and staffers get together in a dark room somewhere, write a bill and then slip it out just long enough to get it rubber stamped. But I'm thinking the odds of that become less.
* Remember, by their nature all farm programs fail- be it support Prices, FOR, setaside, LDP etc. Ethanol is failing now. But we've tended to come up with the next patch, generally soon enough that the majority don't go broke.
