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Veteran Advisor

I didn't get the memo

Wheat up nice...I sure would have liked to been
In the market and profited I would gladly
Welcome the money.

I've been posting what I considered bullish
News, but I was told wheat has 9 lives.. plenty
Of wheat....etc...etc..,

Then out of the blue...wham

Sure is nice to say one thing, and do another.



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11 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: I didn't get the memo

Everyone, especially the experts were all on the same Side of the boat.

 

That's a neon sign to do the opposite.

 

In my 46 years in this game, when there is no hope or light at the end of the tunnel is when there is a turn around.

 

Seems to be on the backs of Argentine farmers, we in the western corn belt may be next ...

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Honored Advisor

Re: I didn't get the memo

As I posted on another site...

 


"Every "expert" has been preaching sell, sell, sell, be sold out.

 

I'm thinking there might be a market for crow lunch meat, crow stew, and barbeque crow for their next month or so meals, maybe crow bacon for breakfast?"

 

For a franchising fee I'll sell you the rights to this for Kansas and since you are close to Nebraska you can get on there too.

I'm sure there are plenty of growers that would buy crow to send to there favorite broker and market guru.

 

Too many followed the herd over the buffalo jump.

 

As a disclaimer, I turned down an opportunity to send money to a self proclaimed market expert today. Has his clients 60+% sold out of beans at lower levels, and some new crop at lower levels as well. 

Stupid ME, all of last year's equivalent corn and several years worth of beans in my tin cans, May be another big tax bite  next Feb? Darn contrarian, been lonesome over on this side of the boat.

Beans are over $10 at the crushers here tonight, having trouble not doing a currency swap with them.

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Honored Advisor

Re: I didn't get the memo

Smiley Very Happy   Well don`t look at me, I kept hearing the tick-tock bonkers saying, "this so-called president is getting us out of nafta...dear leader is gonna have a trade war with our good buddies, the Chinese ...Sonny Perdue....Johnny Icahn.  RFS is doooomed! ..  I`ll pay you $2.75 for 100 bushel of corn for my corn stove this fall.blah blah blah" .  What about all that?   

 

I would`ve forward sold too, but I`m too chicken sxxt, so it`s maybe looking a little better having it unsold just right now.   However, have no fear, "Lucy will pull the football away at some point" and I`ll not fail to sell in the bottom 1/3 come fall.  That`s just the thing, how far do you go dancing on the thin ice near the aerators, like last July, the market gave you a small (very small) profit for 2 days and then yanked the rug out from us with no do-oversies.

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Honored Advisor

Re: I didn't get the memo

That BA is the "$64,000" question.

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Honored Advisor

Re: I didn't get the memo

Please ........... lets not give the market much credit yet.... 

 

The digital bubble is about to drive the cost of production to even higher levels.  It's acompanying "cancer", cyber security and "facebook" policing insanity will drive taxes and costs also.

The same digital bubble that provides the avenue for price control on commodities and voter control through mind control is going to take on a lot of air........it is going to take all the energy out of the economy to keep feeding the "silicon Valley" greed machine.  Now that the promise for the future is "too the moon" in a driverless vehicle,,, it is going to take a lot more digital contributions to feed the digital plague sucking the jobs away from the taxpayers who are charged with saving the planet.

 

This bubble may not pop for a long time...  I just hope we are not relying on "puppy mills" for protein before it happens.

 

Point is THIS IS THE VOICE OF YOUR INCOME STATEMENT

Your production costs are on a trend that is similar to usda's corn yield graph....... with a much greater reliability of prognostication.  COSTS ARE NOT CONTROLED BY INCOME REDUCTIONS OR LACK OF SPENDING.

We better hope this is not just a death rattle in the markets...  We are way below the prices it is going to take to keep production agriculture alive in this digital age of taxation and production costs.  

What are the chances the rest of the world inflates to our levels of production costs.....??

What are the chances that the "global climate change" scam was just intended to suck the life out of the US economy.  Intended or not... that is the outcome.   By the time the digital bubble bursts, it will take a federal subsidy to keep a donut shop open in a small town.

 

So next problem is ....... at what level of price in wheat, corn or beans do we show a profit next year??

 

Pesimism is alive......

Don't get too enthused about a small price bump....  Wheat for example should be double where it is 

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Honored Advisor

Re: I didn't get the memo

The world we live in................... Smiley HappySmiley Sad

 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ijVLdH5dt-c

 

 

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: I didn't get the memo

hope you didn't buy yesterday

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Veteran Advisor

Re: I didn't get the memo

Since wheat is down about as much as it
Went up yesterday, I doubt if the fundamentals
((Whatever those are)), was responsible for
The move...
I looked at AccuWeather data thru May 15

I have 9 chances for rain.....and part of the
Wheat didn't come up last fall due to lack of
Rain....and we have not had much since it
Was planted.

We SHOULD have a significant rally one of
These days.

My advice
Be very atune the wx a month before wheat tour.
If no significant rains and none on the horizon.
Buy jul or Sept call.
Sept would have harvest flush over with.
Dec, no, too much impact by fall crop harvest.
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Senior Contributor

Re: I didn't get the memo

well wheat is down big today!  We are going to have the biggest snow of the winter come monday and tuesday. Trouble is there are 30+ mph winds that will stop it in the trees and farmyards and in towns not on the fields. It doesnt matter anyway cause the ground is still frozen in ND and most of SD and MT so it all runs off when it melts anyway! So this isnt a crop saving event like the trade seems to think besides there is nothing seeded anyway!

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