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rickgthf
Senior Advisor

I don't care if you can sell Dec22 corn for $5.50, ....

... with fertilizer at $1000 per ton, it still doesn't pencil out.  And just think of what the crop insurance premium will be.

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7 Replies
Blacksandfarmer
Senior Advisor

Re: I don't care if you can sell Dec22 corn for $5.50, ....

Swinging for the fences on corn yield will bankrupt farmers in 2022 if they aren't careful.

Hog or cattle finishing buildings sure look attractive when fertilizer prices get this high. Fortunately we have a bunch of hog farms in our area that sell the excess manure.

k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: I don't care if you can sell Dec22 corn for $5.50, ....

What  is  the  price  of  the  hog  barn  product ,  with  the  application  figured  in  -  ?   

Analysis  of  the  product ,  is  another  question  - ? 

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: I don't care if you can sell Dec22 corn for $5.50, ....

Well, if you have a 200 APH go in 80% RA fall price you can guarantee $880/acre ... you are probably gonna have a okay year, God willing.   Rent $350, seed $100,  chemical $50, nitrogen $150, insurance  $50, 400lbs of ($1000) plowdown $200   .......  Opps!   I give up adding and you`re already screwed.   Call the auctioneer!    🙂

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: I don't care if you can sell Dec22 corn for $5.50, ....

I don't see an enormous difference for corn vs. soy, or marginal N economics.

But it is a whole lotta money on the table.

Seems more a defensive marketing problem- making sure you don't lose a lot of that large investment should things go "well".

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Blacksandfarmer
Senior Advisor

Re: I don't care if you can sell Dec22 corn for $5.50, ....

K-289, If I remember correctly it was applied for around $30 an acre this spring. That was for 12,000 gallons an acre from a farrow to wean facility. It was more diluted than the stuff coming out of a finishing barn, thus the higher amount of gallons applied. I set a new personal best soybean yield of 60 bu an acre on that farm this year. My previous best on that farm was 45 bu.

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erikjohnson61y
Senior Advisor

Re: I don't care if you can sell Dec22 corn for $5.50, ....

I agree with SD - it's shaping up to be a defensive year. I've been trying to build soil P and K for the last several years, and despite the high prices, I will at least put down what I think the crop needs. My APH's are 165-169 and I usually fertilize for 200 (and hit it twice in the last 3 years). But this year I am fertilizing for 160. Here in South Dakota we have the additional worry of depleted soil moisture.  Here's my economics at $5 new crop corn:

Seed - $70/acre - cutting population from 28000 to 25000

Fertilizer - 115#N (3% OM), 34#P, 105#K, 10#S - $285/acre

Chemicals - $20/acre

Fuel - $15/acre

Repairs - $30/acre

Supplies/Misc - $10/acre

Taxes - $21/acre

Insurance - $30/acre

Rent - $145/acre

Total expenses = $626/acre

160 bu/acre x $5/bu = 800$/acre

Raw profit before personal expenses = $174/acre. 

 

IF weather is good and N prices come down by mid June-ish, I'll top dress another 30-40# of N and figure my population is enough to support 180-200 yield with a flex ear number and I can mine some P and K. 

illinifarmer
Advisor

Re: I don't care if you can sell Dec22 corn for $5.50, ....

Damn Erik you lost me at seed let alone the rest. Here local 150$ seed 300$ rent put down roughly 200fert and our planting population is 34k - 40k. Pushing all the buttons I’ll be right at 1000$ acre. County avg. yields 178 … double crop soybeans as much as I can, but defensive year might be an understatement here.

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