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Senior Advisor

I don't mind selling too soon

as much as I hate selling too late.

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7 Replies
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Contributor

Re: I don't mind selling too soon

I agree.  I sold 1000bu. corn on 12/03/10 for Jan 2011 delivery to the local elevator for $5.45 bu.  Nov 2011 new crop corn was $4.76 bu. but I'll wait till next spring for hopefully a better price.    

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Advisor

Re: I don't mind selling too soon

Selling late is when you really kick yourself.

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Senior Contributor

Re: I don't mind selling too soon

I have no problem selling on the backside of a spike. Though I do shoot for spikes, the VERY top in these volatile times is pretty tough to call. On the other hand, until one sees how high some of these spikes can be, one has no idea on the front side unless you are gathering a lot of info. '07-08 I sold wheat on both sides , from $12.50 on the front to $9+ on the back. I know most wheat sold before $8. 

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Senior Contributor

Re: I don't mind selling too soon

Psychologically, it is easier to sell on the upswing, thinking maybe you are hitting the highs, than to sell on the downside knowing that you are taking less than you could have before.

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Senior Advisor

Re: I don't mind selling too soon

Exactly Red. Like selling $12 beans may be far short of where they will end up. But I have sold a helluva lot of beans for less than $10 and I would kick my own butt if I let them drop to those levels without taking a bite.

 

They may go higher and probably will, but when they drop it will probably drop like a rock and it could be mighty painful.

 

I'll bet there are alot of guys that would never buy $12 beans expecting a big gain, yet they will sit on $12 beans that they own and take the same risk while paying storage and paying interest.

 

I could be wrong though. I was once before. ;~)

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Senior Contributor

Re: I don't mind selling too soon

As long as we're talking about it, and it's a friendly give and take ......

 

$12 beans on the way up or the way down are all the same to me - even though I will never sell a bean in my life (I'm just humoring you guys). The idea that a marketer is going to hold on longer after the peak than the man who won't on the way up, if you know what I mean, is just a stereotype in my experience. I definitely do not ascribe to the saying that 'you can never make a mistake by selling at a profit'. And  thinking selling is dependent on your break even point is plain silly. I don't think the market or futures care. It all depends on the circumstances.

 

My sales are dependent on the influences and probablities at that moment in time, and what the trends are regarding these factors - weather, ending inventories, and the like. I don't assume an outcome based on averaging patterns from the past as they are irrelevant for the most part - aside from the obvious. And it makes a HUGE difference if you are before or after planting windows.

 

Somewhere there are opportunities. The small ones in a marketing year when not much is happening aren't likely to be critical. It's the year when big things happen that money can be made. Determining the likelihood of these opportunities is huge. On the other hand. After I've sold I never look back because I know for a certainty that I made the best decision with the information I had at the time. I never feel bad one way or another. One terminal manager has told me that the blood in my veins is different than any that he's seen in his very long career. And maybe he's joking.

 

 

 

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: I don't mind selling too soon

You're obviously more of a student on these matters. I'm not and am too darn lazy to learn. Besides I don't have the cajones to stay long in this market. I guess I could play around a bit with options but I don't think I will.

 

Like you, I make a decision and am content if I thought the decision was well reasoned. Selling on the downside is particularly disturbing to me because I generally think it will recover and spike again. Sometimes it doesn't recover and I find my self selling at much below the highs.

 

Sales decisons are almost always wrong. Either we don't sell enough or we sell too much. That doesn't give us much of an edge.  Thus we are generally wrong 100%.

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