As long as we're talking about it, and it's a friendly give and take ......
$12 beans on the way up or the way down are all the same to me - even though I will never sell a bean in my life (I'm just humoring you guys). The idea that a marketer is going to hold on longer after the peak than the man who won't on the way up, if you know what I mean, is just a stereotype in my experience. I definitely do not ascribe to the saying that 'you can never make a mistake by selling at a profit'. And thinking selling is dependent on your break even point is plain silly. I don't think the market or futures care. It all depends on the circumstances.
My sales are dependent on the influences and probablities at that moment in time, and what the trends are regarding these factors - weather, ending inventories, and the like. I don't assume an outcome based on averaging patterns from the past as they are irrelevant for the most part - aside from the obvious. And it makes a HUGE difference if you are before or after planting windows.
Somewhere there are opportunities. The small ones in a marketing year when not much is happening aren't likely to be critical. It's the year when big things happen that money can be made. Determining the likelihood of these opportunities is huge. On the other hand. After I've sold I never look back because I know for a certainty that I made the best decision with the information I had at the time. I never feel bad one way or another. One terminal manager has told me that the blood in my veins is different than any that he's seen in his very long career. And maybe he's joking.
