I got a hunch/SEVERE RATIONING

[Hobbyfarmer]

Personally I'd like to see $8ish corn,

[rayjenkins]

Don't spend too much time worrying about me and $10 corn.....it is YOU who should be worried about corn going to $10.....do you have any idea what that will do to your cost structure in the form of rents, etc.......and it's pretty evident that unless it is a 30 day "done and over with" situation, it will put so much pain on some end use segments that they may not be around when the price is half that number....

great margins always have a way of disappearing, even if the price of the corn and beans doesn't plummet......but combine lower prices and a higher cost structure, and you have a lethal combination of stress in the ag sector...

it's been a heckuva ride.....buckle up

[roarintiger1]

If corn gets to $10,  it won't spend much time there anyways.   No matter how bad the weather is this summer, USDA will not let the corn carryout numbers get any lower than 600 million bushels.

[jrsiajdranch]

Heck I don't want to see 7 dollar corn! Let alone 10

[Longcreekfarms]

I emptied my bins last summer with 9.00 on the paycheck. If NASA is right about the hell on earth temps this summer, 10 isn't far fetched. But there are a lot of ifs and maybes until then. Anyone else considering lower populations to try and achieve better pollination in this predicted heat?

[Shaggy98]

Precisely, please see my earlier post. It might be in another thread. USDA will not allow corn to go that high, I don't care what the weather is.

[Canuck_2]

An observation from Ontario where we had a big crop and have to export to get rid of it all.

Basis has remained stuck at an export level.

Corn has been moving into the US all winter.

In the last week or so I have been by 5 on farm storage sites in my close neighbourhood.

The smallest one probably has at least 500 tonne of storage.

I have seen corn been shipped from 3 of those and evidence of recent activity at one other.

the only one that I did not see any activity at I would only know if I happened to see a truck coming or going since loadout is not visible from road.

So 2 of them had at least 2 trains loading or waiting as I went by the smallest on had a single hopper truck loading and the other I only saw recently scattered corn and tracks.

It is moving somewhere in this area and the small elevator I have corn stored at called abotu 2 weeks ago to let me know their price. I expect that was because they were looking to source some more.

Was all this corn sold earlier and just being shipped now?

[Buckley_HF]

Ray, you said "It's pretty simple.....all those phone calls are being made because it is the farmer who is holding the bulk of the ownership of the remaining corn supply." I 100% agree with you. However I'm concerned for all of us that that amount isn't what a lot of people, grain buyers and USDA, believe it is. I can only speak of my area, ECIL, but only a tiny portion of guys with lots of storage put very much of that corn on farm, with the free DP and aflatoxin scare tactics elevators all over the area were using. So while I agree with your statement, what happens if that corn amount happens to only be 75% of what the USDA believes? 50%? We could be a lot tighter right now than people think. And it's only march 2nd.

[rayjenkins]

wheat feeding will ramp up from current levels even more, especially now that local wheat is competitive with corn brought in from out of the area

and if we can grow a low aflo southern corn crop, there will be big movement of corn north via barge, truck, rail.....I've already started to look at plan B in that regards for late August/early September if it works...

and we'll see imported corn come into coastal regions....

the economics will dictate whether it makes sense to move corn from the interior to the outer regions, or source it out of country and bring it in by water...

and at a $1.50--2.00 inverse, all of our export buyers will be looking at how to get along with one less cargo for a 4-8 week period of time and replace that with new crop supplies during or after our harvest....

not necessarily pretty, or smooth.....but the market will get the job done.....

[rayjenkins]

PS......there is a reason the value of RINS has exploded from 5 to 55-60 cents......