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Senior Advisor

I guess the proverbial "sh**t hit the fan today in the Oval Office. About time.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-20/trump-seeks-to-allay-farm-state-uproar-in-oval-of...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biofuels-trump-exclusive-idUSKCN1VA1V0I

I've been saying for two years now that these exemptions would effectively decouple the connection between the price of ethanol and the price of gasoline.  The evidence that shows that has been clear for almost as long.

I'm only surprised that it took this long for the republicans to understand this and finally say something.

The trump administration talks a good game when it comes to farmers but the reality is quite different.

Add that to the soybean market betrayal and it's a one two knockout punch.

22 Replies
Senior Advisor

Re: I guess the proverbial "sh**t hit the fan today in the Oval Office. About time.

Ya know, I am simply flabbergasted that this administration is so dysfunctional that nobody flagged the really bad politics of the RIN waivers. Other than Mulvaney working furiously to root competence and experience out of government, there isn't anybody in charge.

While the EPA guys are obviously very, very friendly with their former (and future) fossil fuel employers, there were no adults watching the greater picture and considering the political costs. 

I have a similar suspicion about the recent NASS report although at a much lower degree of certainty. With the internal chaos there, you wonder if the staff didn't just say, meh, let's just put out some numbers.

Honored Advisor

Re: I guess the proverbial "sh**t hit the fan today in the Oval Office. About time.

Are any of the Democrats running on a platform of "rescinding the Rin waivers"?  Do any of the Democrats know what a Rin waiver is?  So what`s the Democrat plan on getting the Chinese soybean market back?  Take them a fruit basket and bouquet of flowers and say "We`re really really sorry" and hope China buys beans in 2021, feeding meal to ASF hogs?  

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: I guess the proverbial "sh**t hit the fan today in the Oval Office. About time.

Im a democrat and i know what

A rin wavier is.

The boat just keeps on taking

On more and more water all

The time.

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: I guess the proverbial "sh**t hit the fan today in the Oval Office. About time.

Does that mean you are running for President? Please tell us more.

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Honored Advisor

Re: I guess the proverbial "sh**t hit the fan today in the Oval Office. About time.

One thought on ethanol... and the waiver issue.......

Maybe we are getting consistent signals from usda.  1.  Maybe usda is quietly admitting the coming corn crop is going to be very short once it is realized.  Wouldn't this put blenders in a financial hardship blending ethanol at higher prices(or with limited supply)?  Maybe the crop reality in Indiana and Ohio is why Poet decided to stop production for a while...  and maybe Poets decision affected the waiver decision made.

As a producer you get to see the train wreck coming very early........ At usda they get to see the train wreck coming and ignore it while you quietly prepare for it.  Was the extra waivers granted part of that preparation??

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Honored Advisor

Re: I guess the proverbial "sh**t hit the fan today in the Oval Office. About time.

Ethanol and the farm economy have a lot of issues beyond who`s in the white house.  I think that`s a good theory SW.  At a ethanol plant the other day of the same chain that shuttered the Indiana plant, an insider said "You`d be laughed out of the room proposing a new plant now". The Indiana plant was in the works for a few years now and that chain of plants is the most efficient and has patents on much of their competitive advantage, in short if they can`t make it, no one will.  

$2.50 gasoline and $3.50 corn maybe going to $5 is a tough row to hoe for that industry regardless who`s in the oval office in DC.

Honored Advisor

Re: I guess the proverbial "sh**t hit the fan today in the Oval Office. About time.

its too bad.  Out of the trillions of dollars we borrowed and spent on green energy this was our one chance at economicly effective development and still is...... but if their shutting down because of corn supply available it means usda has been fudging the carry all along.

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Honored Advisor

Re: I guess the proverbial "sh**t hit the fan today in the Oval Office. About time.

Isn't the basis in that area of the corn belt in the +50 to +70 cent range? 

Kind of a compound issue of supply, rin waivers, and price.

The latest set of waivers were the final straw?

 Getting harder to buy a flex fuel vehicle.

Just got back from a 5200+ mile trip to the nw. Lots of Testla cars along the west coast. Didn't see a single one in the wilds of Idaho, Montana, South Dakota etc. 

The 700+ range of my flex fuel buggy let us skip over a lot of high $ fuel areas.

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Honored Advisor

Re: I guess the proverbial "sh**t hit the fan today in the Oval Office. About time.

Hobby we are at +25 old crop and new crop harvest delivery(must be dry) at ethanol   +5 elevator

elevator new crop +10

I think sales to Cactus feeders might be a little better for fall delivery 16.5 or below

No good signs out here....

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