I hope I am wrong

[farmer46]

I hope I am wrong, but I believe this corn market needs to have 2 limit up days next week.  I believe it would send a strong message.    Cut usage now or little corn available at any price next summer.   I know I will not hold out until next summer.  If high priced corn appears this fall, my corn will be marketed.   I may  believe one thing, but I have little guts.  

[Red Steele]

it takes guts to hold on in markets like these. I have corn in my bins that did not get sold for $6, $7, or $8. Same with the soybeans. Plenty got sold for lower amounts, especially in previous years. At what price do you let it go?

With new crop, I really don't know what I am going to have for yields. Sold some newcrop for close to $8 right out of the field and that is only a small percent of the insured bushels but my gut says higher prices are coming and to be patient I know I don't want to oversell and have to source product in a bull market.

Not an easy thing to do.

[roarintiger1]

The cutting of usage with much higher prices should've started this spring.  With the much below normal precipitation of last winter into spring the writing was on the wall. Add to that the over zealous USDA's acreage and yield predictions which only delayed the inevitable.  Now with all the talk about lowering usage any way possible,  it seems that the cows have already left the barn.   (No pun intended, my apologies to the livestock guys)  USDA has painted themselves into a corner, with the help of mother nature.

[Canuck_2]

Red it is the old question. Comes around every year, actually all year long.

When to sell and when or how much to hold?

It just seems more important when prices are higher.

Here in Ontario word is that commercial buyers are pretty well covered and have quit buying.

They are waiting (hoping?) for lower prices at harvest.

Now we are probably in a little different position that the US as we will have a crop to harvest.

Somewhat reduced but not much will be abandoned.

May be more of a drain on grain corn by livestock people chopping more for silage to fill their bunks both because of the shorter cron and to replace the shortage of forages.

Our corn is kept up by movement to the US but basis has slipped some this week and that only helps to prove that the buyers think they can make it to harvest.

And just so everyone knows I priced the last 75 tonne in my bins yesterday. 

May not be the market high but it is a little higher than last years best price and it is easier to store in the bank than in the bin.

Could have got $5/t more today.

[Sly243]

What I'm seeing from reading on these discussion boards is that a lot of Ontario farmers think they have a lot to harvest. I farm in southern Ontario and a lotoff fields look good, but once you walk into those fields and look for pods on the 3 foot plants or peel back the leaves and look at the ears, you will be surprised.  Many have not taken a good look. 75% of the crop looks about average, but like many from in the states have said, you need to walk the fields to really see the pollination issues. 

[Canuck_2]

Hi Sly; I am of course looking at my own crop and do not expect to hit average but I am also not seeing a disastor like I am reading of in the US.

What % of average we get I do not know but we do have a crop coming.

You say you are in southern Ontario too and maybe in an area that missed a shower or two that we got.

think Essex/Kent/Lambton and even part of Middelsex has been doing better for rain and other areas are hit and miss and some depends on the soil.

I am only slightly over 50% of my normal rainfall since April and it was dry before that but keep getting a little shower when it is needed the most. That is why I think I have near average crop in my fields.

Corn is fully polinated and filled to the tips need more rain to fully fill the kernals though.

Wheat was just a little above average.

Hay is only 50% of a crop.

[Sly243]

Hey Canuck, I'm in essex county.  Rains did come through but any early corn is about 3 to 4 feet tall and burning up.  Nothing like in the states, but if we didn't have them to compare too, a lot of people would be crying to the news stations here.  Late corn, which would have been normal timing any other year is looking good,but is very variable.  I'm just worried people here are listening to the states and thinking they have a great crop and will be Cashing in huge. Too many counting there blessings wayyyyy too soon. Once the wagons are full i get excited, nothing earlier. Soybeans are far from in the clear and we need some rain.  Vegetable growers who never irrigate have been for a month.  Luckily our corn looks good but in general the area is not as good as it has been made out to be. Majority of the corn is burned up halfway. Time will tell but rain keeps dissipating over the lakes. I'm not negative but just think people should know we are not going to be above trend line down here. Hail hit a lot of corn this year too. 

[Canuck_2]

Essex is a long way from me being north of London but had been led to believe there had been more rain down there.

Know our daughter in London has had more than we have.

Probably just the luck of the showers.

Oxford county or at least parts of it around Embro anyway are foing fine.

Yes lots of lower leaves brown around here too but the cobs look pretty good.

People who abused their soil in the past are paying for it this year.

As I said no bumper crop but I am becoming more convinced every day that I will not be too far below my 5 year average.

Soys have lots of pods but mostly 2 bean.

Hard to tell with soys and we need rain again to fill them or they will probably abort.

Understand Eastern Ontario has some real dry spots and Niagara area was supposed to be very dry earlier.

Probably not much fruit in Niagara anyway after that cold spell in late April, know it fixed the apple trees here. thought it had killed the grape vines too but they grew back but no fruit coming there either. Have to make do with strawberry jam this year. No grape jelly.