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Blacksandfarmer
Senior Advisor

Re: I just can't believe we are nearing a bottom

Buck IMO we are at or near a bottom in corn and beans. The crops being harvested are in the areas that had the best growing weather. As harvest creeps north the yields will begin to lessen. The US was nearly out of soybeans, this harvest will replenish our bean stocks, soybeans being planted in SA have plenty of time to have weather scares. By being a seed dealer I am already seeing the decline in corn acres for next year. Farmers can still lock in a profit on soybeans for 2015 delivery, and some farmers in my area are increasing wheat acres, 70 to 100 bu wheat still makes money.

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Re: I just can't believe we are nearing a bottom

Lets play the what if game.........What if the corn belts bean national average is 50 bu/acre............What if South America responded slowly to the price drop and expands hugely with new acress.............What if South America Follows up with a huge bean crop after NA has the mother of all crops.  Just remember how many people said a 180 corn crop would never happen because the 45 year yield trend was only 159 this year.  Just remember how many people said we would never have a 180 national average because there is more fringe areas comprising the total corn belt acres like never before.  Just remember how many where saying we wheren't going to have a big crop because of huge june rains.  Charts say we aren't close to a bottom yet so stay short until the moving averages tell you not to stay short.

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Blacksandfarmer
Senior Advisor

Re: I just can't believe we are nearing a bottom

Buck, you are not the only one that got this market right. The majority of my soybean crop will be heading to the elevator with an 11 and 12 in front of the price. I did not get as lucky with corn; only 20% of my crop will be sold with a 4 in front of it. The saving grace will be the 80% yield and revenue insurance I bought this year. All I'm saying is that this market could get better in a short period of time.

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