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Senior Advisor

I'm not going to do the numbers but, .....

..... I think my original assumption that rises in consumption were going to be the story for this marketing year is proving out more so than I could have imagined. Every wheat exporting country is shipping out more than expected, at least those that had good harvests. The US, EU, Russia and so on. Beans supposedly up 10 million tns just to China. We are in the midst of a boom. China is expected to increase corn exports in the coming years. Even more COF in the US than expected and some at very light weights.


What made me think more about this was a few articles I've been reading about the 2014 -5 crops and how good they are going to be (based on expected acres mainly). I thought this last was a pretty good all around year.


I'm sensing a disconnect between expectations and reality. The recent rises in price are a reflection of that. Not long ago I think everyone assumed stagnation for corn at just above $4. I can't say how this next year in production will turn out but I believe there's a tiger behind us and if we slow down and relax we may be in a bad situation.


In unexplored territory with something behind that is not to our liking a box canyon due to weather isn't what you want to find yourself in. Let's just say I'm uncomfortable. In a year or so my intuition may seem like a laugher, ....... or not.





2 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: I'm not going to do the numbers but, .....

a little confounded, Palouser - wouldn't that make you MORE $comfortable$ ?

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Senior Advisor

Re: I'm not going to do the numbers but, .....

In 2007 I could see the wheat thing coming. This is a bit more general. We have enough for right now, except we'll import beans this summer - and that's not cheap. But they're out there,though shipping many beans here AND shipping to China from SA may cause some logistics problems. Corn is tougher to call. I think more than anything it's the China thing, though that's now what triggered my thoughts. If China has a bad year - and it will happen some day - then it won't matter how good crops are around the world because things will still be tight.