..... I think my original assumption that rises in consumption were going to be the story for this marketing year is proving out more so than I could have imagined. Every wheat exporting country is shipping out more than expected, at least those that had good harvests. The US, EU, Russia and so on. Beans supposedly up 10 million tns just to China. We are in the midst of a boom. China is expected to increase corn exports in the coming years. Even more COF in the US than expected and some at very light weights.
What made me think more about this was a few articles I've been reading about the 2014 -5 crops and how good they are going to be (based on expected acres mainly). I thought this last was a pretty good all around year.
I'm sensing a disconnect between expectations and reality. The recent rises in price are a reflection of that. Not long ago I think everyone assumed stagnation for corn at just above $4. I can't say how this next year in production will turn out but I believe there's a tiger behind us and if we slow down and relax we may be in a bad situation.
In unexplored territory with something behind that is not to our liking a box canyon due to weather isn't what you want to find yourself in. Let's just say I'm uncomfortable. In a year or so my intuition may seem like a laugher, ....... or not.
