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Esteemed Advisor

I'm on his team :-)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-11/farmers-who-don-t-trust-u-s-data-vow-to-hoard-unt...

Totally agree with Ben, we called the industrial welders and got an appointment for January when we will likely finish harvest :-)

I already told my broker, let the boys in Chitown know, we're taking delivery :-)

5 Replies
Frequent Contributor

Re: I'm on his team :-)

Welded shut right up to the point of needing to move for cash, quality concerns, or basis gets really good. 

Take delivery on the Illinois River or Chicago or Burns waterway harbor, or saint louis, that is a game rigged by the commercials for the commercials and anybody interfearing with that will most likely get squashed for daring to play in their sandbox.

it will be epic if you place rail freight at a delivery location get a quality product loaded and get it shipped to the southeast without losing your shirt.

It will be such a commercial party interrupter that you will get rail load out only because the river will be froze, you will get quality that will barely meet specs of the certificate and will get every bit of stuff blended in that they don’t want. You will have a rail nightmare as the railroad doesn’t perform because you don’t have a national contract, your rail rates will be horrendous. Every trick and technicality allowed in the cbot delivery rule book will be used against you. 

 It would be epic but we as farmers can’t compete in that realm. The delivery rules were written by commercials for commercials to allow them to widen carry and earn it.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: I'm on his team :-)Time

This report today means nothing, just a bunch of people from New York City putting some numbers together. Like if test weight comes in at 51 instead of 58, that is over a ten percent loss of yield. Google from dent to black layer. 28 days. It will not show up maybe next May. By the way you fed hogs, they do not grow fast on chaffy corn

 

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: I'm on his team :-)

Now, you over thought it Eddie. I'm not going to ship it anywhere, just make them give up control of the bushels for a short while :-) Usually only have to hold 2 days till the market corrects the abuse, or recognizes the problem. We have taken delivery more than once over the years and usually it works out, but you do have to have want to fight the system :-)   Pull up the history of lows being made on FND and you can see what I mean.

Actually just more fun to play with the clearing house in Chicago, make them earn it once in a while...

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Frequent Contributor

Re: I'm on his team :-)

I can still easily work the eraser and pencil and come up with a 12.5bb corn crop.

The problem is whether the demand destruction is fully realized. 

I'm inclined to think that a 1.4-1.6 bb carryout doesn't engender a large rally.

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Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: I'm on his team :-)

interesting that the article sounds so "producer authentic"---- cold have pulled that from Marketing archives .....

empty for harvestis where we are most usually and this half the crop sits until it finds a market.  After all its going to be the highest price portion of the crop and sit for the longest.

As it unfolds........compare it to the 1972-3......... think what a US capitalism hating leadership would be doing for China right now...if they were in the whitehouse...... with a congress in tow.   I don't know but possible working up a financing package for the poor Chinese government that can't afford to buy soybeans at these low prices, especially with the lack of Protein from the ASF MEDIA CRISIS.  Financing China to some  large purchases on bottom feeder prices.   Then stepping up to the mike to say "look what we did for the US Farmer we sold half his crop and got nothing but the chance to do it again."  Now that is sick leadership.

If farm storage is going to hold most of the US crop and be patient.... then our trade guru needs to be very patient as well.  Then lets both decide how to deal with the "merchants of Grain".

Even though we have only 2.5b bushels of useable beans in the bin after harvest(if we are lucky), we have our very own "computer modeling" folks at usda assuring the potential buyers we have 4b and that big carry assumption "over there in that other state....maybe idaho."         --- It may seem strange but it is very similar to climate science.... where the facts we count on are assumed by favored methods, the modern version of "my friends agree with me".    Think what the historic trend line is if usda would only publish their full capabilities.  We would know what exports and average yields were for those ancient roasting ears from caves we carbon date to 4000BC.    Now that is going to need a correctional deviance.  But it has to be right if climate science can tell you what the temperature average of the whole world was 500 million years ago.  Why did we invent thermometers?

I feel good about all this ego boosting computer modeling.  We all should feel highly elevated.  See, we all  can advance theory by way of computer just like the self promoting proffessors do.

 

 

(do a comparison of the offload price of soybeans in the far east, which they pay the freight on, and the $7.45 our producers will get if they are #1 grade)