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Senior Contributor

I may be insane

It could be this weather flop we had this year,  from dust to ducks, it could be the heat we had the other day,, it could be a form a insanity, BUT I think the markets are going higher longer term. (pre harvest time period)  I don't think we are done yet, I think we rally corn futures back towards $7,  beans back towards $15.  But hey I've been wrong before....


The market just doesn't feel done to me yet.     We had a good rally today in the bean basis, and the local ethanol plants haven't stopped cooking yet...  

 

Thoughts, comments,,

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4 Replies
Advisor

Re: I may be insane

I think many of us hope you are right. We look to be stuck in a similar pattern as last year. Rangebound for quite some time and perhaps things will change coming up in the next month or two. Basis is definitely saying something different than th board.
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Senior Advisor

Re: I may be insane

I tend to agree with you HY, but like you I've been wrong way more than I've been correct.  I've got a gut feeling as we get closer into the heat of the summer some more issues could arise.  I just can't accept the fact our crop is as large as the USDA tells us.  Couple the less than stellar reports of the beginning of wheat harvest with the conditions the corn crop was put in or failed to go in and my gut tells me to sit tight and sell only the bushels that need to be sold.  As the old saying goes, "Time Will Tell".

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Veteran Advisor

Re: I may be insane

history usually repeats in some manner, simply with different details.

 

........and on the more rare occassion it creates a "new" history-or so it appears........until one scales out far enough to see that pattern or supposed new history is revealed as a chapter of history that's actually been similar --- just been dormant for a much longer time.

hope  this makes any sense.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: I may be insane

One other concept i'm learning - first saw palouser post about it - that the futures are a lagging indicator of present economics of a mkt.

 

as i also believe the USDA reports are historical by nature, but the trade has to trade them today --- except for some quarterly "surprises" - in these cases, the mkt already "knows of the surprise but has to wait to respond to it -- kinda goes with the lagging indicator idea.

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