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Senior Advisor

I see feed wheat …...

.... if physical prices conform to futures. In the PNW we are about $1.50 + basis, but somewhere there must be available wheat at a lower price. Or ...... ?

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8 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: I see feed wheat …...

Cash corn is 40 some cents higher than cash wheat here........When has that ever happened before?  

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Senior Advisor

Re: I see feed wheat …...

Corn has been higher than wheat in the PNW for some time. It hit $9 bu this summer. Since Wa state has the highest yields nationally growers mad a ton of money. I saw silage left for grain.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: I see feed wheat …...

Here's a chart of spot Wheat/Corn-technically, prompt to expiry. Currently spot.

 

ScreenShot001.gif

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Senior Contributor

Re: I see feed wheat …...points out the vulnerability of wheat prices here ...

Mkt is telling ius when corn loses $1, SRW will drop 2.

 

Sadly it mist be tough to move SRW west, otherwise dealers could take delivery on CBT and catch 2$. 12-13 mkting yr for corn is one of rationing, price rations and finding substitutes, this we see record wheat US feed use.  

 

The way a mkt works is in not looking at last year but it processes S&D and what its job is done, it moves on. Producers who spend their time in dreams of 2 yrs ago harm themselves.

 

CBT wheat in roll terms peaked over a year ago, it made new lows in that move today. Trying to round-up some bull scenario, wk in wk out, that doesn’t exist , doesn’t change reality. Pro specs short what producers won’t and earn the premia and carry.

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Honored Advisor

Re: I see feed wheat …...points out the vulnerability of wheat prices here ...

Good points pritch,

 

It was first up and probably should lead the others down.  As Pal, points out occasionally, it can be supplied from so many sources.

 

Just looking at the chart again this morning---- We( strike that) -- I been ignoring a long run down in new crop.

 

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: I see feed wheat …...points out the vulnerability of wheat prices here ...

    You haven't been looking at the drought map if you are missing a potential BULL senario,mother nature doe's not seem to be finished with the non perfect weather for a region that includes corn,soy,and wheat production.Remember,it may be precipitating in some places now but it is march 6.and sub soil is stil in a big drought.

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Honored Advisor

Re: I see feed wheat …...points out the vulnerability of wheat prices here ...

  We are out topdressing ahead of a little more potential this weekend.  But the last two moisture events turned to nothing just 30 miles west and north of us.

 

On wheat, locally here in the sw feedlot region, for the last three years we have had a sizeable wheat run up after harvest if we could hold it and move it in august or september.  With basis getting strong -- and I mean higher than I have seen-- may aproach even when our norm is -60------ I am wondering if we might see it again??

 

The basis is primarily trying to get wheat tied down to feed----- I am assuming.

 

what do you think

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Senior Contributor

Re: I see feed wheat …...points out the vulnerability of wheat prices here ...

    Wheat,corn,or soy for that matter,how many usage days globaly doe's any of the grains true carry realy represent?Seems the powers that be claim current unspoken for stocks of any of the grains are traded from highs to lows with an insanely low comfort margin.Countrys will try to build the stocks(cussion) on your projected low cost over produced grain stocks.Are they going to do these purchaces on $4.00 corn,$5.50 wheat,$8.00 beans? (I don't think so!)

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