Just going by the seat of the pants 'feeling'. Yup, could be wrong, especially for any given day. I'm going to guess that we've stabilized around the 'bottom' for prices on C, SB, and W. That assumption is resting on the idea that reports don't change the size of the crops.
My speculation is that we are experiencing the phenomena of 'filling the empty gas tank', as when fuel prices are higher more refuse to fill up and instead buy the minimal amount of fuel, hoping that the next time fuel will be cheaper. This effect creates a huge pull down on consumer 'storage' that would be greater if prices were lower and tanks were filled up more often.
The above explanation makes some sense explaining the large increases of exports this year over last. The logic flips when prices are viewed as favorable and the future price could go back up. Then the tendency might be to keep 'the tank full' as a cushion against expected higher prices in the future (crops next year?).
This scenario suggests the possibility that demand could be very good this year. This challenges the idea that there is front loading in demand this year - which I don't think has that much credence, though it would help explain the difference between USDA export forecasts and the very good exports currently, that maintained, could easily blow past the USDA projections for the year.
OK, I've done my speculative efforts for the year.
