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Senior Advisor

Re: I shouldn't, but I will call the bottom on wheat

We grow soft white here, though there is limited hard white grown (we do have a higher protein white club wheat that Japan blends with the other softs) . We are also growing every other class of wheat more and more - except SRW.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: I shouldn't, but I will call the bottom on wheat

Alink to our wheat recieval standards south australia

http://ezigrain.abb.com.au/receivalstandards/charts1314/Wheat%20Receival%20Standards%20SA%201281%20R...

 

shows protien and grades etc will post current price spreads if your interested

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: I shouldn't, but I will call the bottom on wheat


@hardwheat wrote:

Australia is a mere drop in the wheat ocean but we do export alot.

A very very large crop POTENTIAL in most of crop growing regions  here.

Harvest starts in mid to late october and end in late jan depending on what region.

Frost is a ever present risk but moisture wise we are all above average year to date.

Basis is very strong 70 cents over chicago this will erode once harvest starts


We are not all above average for moisture, far from it in northern NSW, and for NSW to have an enormous crop northern NSW needs to deliver, A hell of a lot of acres not even planted. A lot of early crops around and with the above season early temps a lot of crops way too advanced and at severe frost risk. If el nino develops could further cut production.  

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Frequent Contributor

Re: I shouldn't, but I will call the bottom on wheat

did say most areas, sneeky, acutely aware of your plight, i should have said southern growing regions, apologies

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: I shouldn't, but I will call the bottom on wheat

65+% of the wheat acres in the US (Hard red Winter) are under insurance claim and/or has yielded at @ half of normal crop or below.

This has to be known by usda since they see the insurance numbers and still have personel in the local offices.

 

When corn export numbers declined in 2012 usda blamed it on price.  ------ possibly a factor,  but denied that there was not enough supply to export while those of us in corn deficit areas knew better.  Now for wheat--- price has dropped on the political propaganda from usda, all through harvest,  so lets see if exports of wheat go up strong.  

Not going to happen.  

The local county elevator took in 800,000 bu, double last years freeze diseaster of 400K.  A normal year would be 2.5 million.  Without Irrigation would have been less than 200K this year.

Salina Ks area at 30 bpa is half of normal and the heart of the wheat belt southwest to Enid, Okla and on sw from there got a lot worse.

 

Call the bottom Palouser------- you have got credibility.  Washington data is just political positioning.

 

Your about all we got in the US wheat information --- credible information.

 

Is there a good source of insurance claim data????  Other than the adjuster telling me "we are covered up".

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Honored Advisor

Re: I shouldn't, but I will call the bottom on wheat

At least own a little paper.   This is the harvest market.  You won't have to hold it forever to see a little profit.  Look how much down side risk has been taken away.

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