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Advisor

I smell a bullish report coming

but I'm taking no action, just musing.

 

That's based on the news that some key people at USDA are out, presumably retiring.

 

I've been chortling a little bit about my 175 dartboard number but in fact didn't expect that to be printed in August.

 

So my wild guess is that there isn't currently a conspiracy against you but they'd sure as heck like to have one on your behalf, at least until after the election.

 

Mau-mauing the USDA may prove to have some temporary benefits. Although as I noted many times before, few will look a USDA gift horse in the mouth should it occur.

 

Although only IA's 6 measly electoral votes appear to be in play. Well, OH, but while the farm vote in IA is small, it is a tiny percent in OH.

My theory is based on 2000 and 2004. Conditions didn't call for anything in '08 or '12.

 

While no stone goes unturned in an election year I'm highly dubious on the proposition that a temporary rosier outlook will move the needle much. But with IA running around +2 Trump and OH +3 Clinton, either side would try most anything if they had the levers and thought they could move it at all.

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6 Replies
Advisor

Re: I smell a bullish report coming

One factor that may have entered in to the 175 Aug number is the implied fact that they underestimated '14 and '15 yields by a bpa or more.

 

But just because the final formula didn't stack up with stocks counts doesn't necessarily mean that it isn't valid this year.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: I smell a bullish report coming

i think your smelling sometthing !Smiley Happy

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Honored Advisor

Re: I smell a bullish report coming

People say that I could stop with the first two words in the title.................................................

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Honored Advisor

Re: I smell a bullish report coming

Time for a random test......

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: I smell a bullish report coming

Bullish for corn...if it is...after a big runup in price going into the report...it

will be a gift. By the same logic then, you expect a bearish bean report right?

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Senior Advisor

Re: I smell a bullish report coming

My uneducated guess is we'll have a somewhat bullish corn report (but it may not be bullish enough to hold the prices up) and a somewhat bearish or neutral soybean report.  I can't get a good feel for beans.  I'm still short the beans, so I guess that means I'm willing to risk that they have downside potential.  We'll see.  If beans are neutral or bullish, I'm going to wonder if I should stay short, but I likely will for another couple of weeks.

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